[9723] in Commercialization & Privatization of the Internet
Re: Sizing the Internet market
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Bruce Gingery)
Tue Jan 18 01:36:05 1994
Date: Mon, 17 Jan 1994 23:18:33 -0700 (MST)
From: Bruce Gingery <lcbginge@antelope.wcc.edu>
To: Lloyd Brodsky <lbrodsky@rocksolid.com>
Cc: com-priv@psi.com
In-Reply-To: <Pine.3.05.9401172136.A9962-c100000@teal.csn.org>
On Mon, 17 Jan 1994, Lloyd Brodsky wrote:
> I'd like to hear some hard marketing data to place in context
> where we are with where we'd like to be in making on-line service
> available to and USED. I'm wrestling with these context of some
> Internet-related business planning, so if anybody has or knows the
> source of answers to the following (especially in a Colorado
> context) I'd love to hear about it.
I don't have any hard marketing data for you, but
I do have some comments.
> 1. How many people have Internet-ready computers (read as a PC or
> Mac with a modem)? What has been the historical growth rate of
> that figure and has the growth rate been stable?
Speaking of US Citizenry of may acquaintance, there are
FAR more PC's and perhaps Macs with modems in use than
there are MODEMS in use (perhaps unfortunately) for a
number of reasons. One you address in your next paragraph
and the second, a "pinch" of computer literacy, which
either generates a fear of telecommunicatons or a fear
of viral infection.
> 2. How many people read voluntarily, either for enjoyment or for
> personal growth (as opposed to reading things because it is
> a job requirement? (I'm asking this question because I've
> noticed a high correlation in telecom classes I've taught between
> positive attitudes towards reading and satisfaction with my
> class)
A LOT of people do. Yet others refuse to read so much
as a TV-Guide, and are thankful that there are "barker"
channels on their local cable. One common reason for this
(yet today) is mis-handled dyslexia, especially in slight
cases in the lower grades. As soon as dyslexia is handled
as a behaviour problem rather than a need for extra assistance,
reading often is supplanted with extra curricular activites
ranging from sports to gang activites, but nearly always
avoiding the need for volumous reading.
> 3. To what extent is the legendarily difficult character-based
> VT100 Internet interface you get with almost all dial-up accounts
> a genuine bar to access? Put another way if, say, a Mosaic-style
> GUI interface were operable over an ordinary dial-up account how
> many more people would sign up that would not otherwise? I might
> also ask, since a SLIP connection would permit the use of Mosaic,
> if it would make a big difference why don't providers hand out
> SLIP-preconfigured copies now?
Sure, Mosaic, NEXTSTEP... Lots of GUI's which don't (usually)
positively affect the fearful, but could attract those who
prefer a GUI.
> 4. What is the price elasticity of Internet access? Put in straight
> English, if you cut the price in half, how many more people
> would buy? (Perhaps the better question, given that most people
> get an account at work or school that they do not pay for out of
> their own pocket, is if they did have to pay for their Internet
I have both a "community" account (this one) and a business
account which our partnership at present strains to pay for
(and Colorado SuperNet is not expensive, even when you tack
on long-distance charges to pick up store-and-forwarded mail.
But, I'm in the industry -- by inclination, as well as fact,
and that may make a significant difference. :-P
Bruce Gingery lcbginge@antelope.wcc.edu
