[186788] in North American Network Operators' Group
RE: Another Big day for IPv6 - 10% native penetration
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Jacques Latour)
Mon Jan 4 11:44:35 2016
X-Original-To: nanog@nanog.org
From: Jacques Latour <jacques.latour@cira.ca>
To: Jared Mauch <jared@puck.nether.net>, Ca By <cb.list6@gmail.com>,
"nanog@nanog.org" <nanog@nanog.org>
Date: Mon, 4 Jan 2016 16:44:31 +0000
In-Reply-To: <167650E3-02DE-4CC5-99FC-79DC3BF06AA4@puck.nether.net>
Errors-To: nanog-bounces@nanog.org
Great news and even more impressive is that Canada is the fastest adopter w=
ith ~8% IPv6 penetration, growing from almost 0.5% to 8% in 3 months!!!. S=
ee http://stats.labs.apnic.net/ipv6/CA
Telus is making a big difference in Canada as the IPv6 adoption leader @ ~4=
5% IPv6 adoption. http://stats.labs.apnic.net/ipv6/AS852?c=3DCA&g=3D&w=
=3D1&x=3D1
Hint, hint, subliminal message here for all Canadian ISPs, IPv6 works ;-)
So let's shutdown IPv4 on April 4, 2024=20
Bonne Ann=E9e!
> -----Original Message-----
> From: NANOG [mailto:nanog-bounces@nanog.org] On Behalf Of Jared Mauch
> Sent: January-04-16 11:28 AM
> To: Ca By
> Cc: nanog@nanog.org
> Subject: Re: Another Big day for IPv6 - 10% native penetration
>=20
>=20
> > On Jan 4, 2016, at 11:09 AM, Ca By <cb.list6@gmail.com> wrote:
> >
> >> On Mon, Jan 4, 2016 at 3:26 AM, Neil Harris <neil@tonal.clara.co.uk>
> wrote:
> >>
> >>> On 02/01/16 15:35, Tomas Podermanski wrote:
> >>>
> >>> Hi,
> >>>
> >>> according to Google's statistics
> >>> (https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html) on 31st
> >>> December
> >>> 2015 the IPv6 penetration reached 10% for the very first time. Just
> >>> a little reminder. On 20th Nov 2012 the number was 1%. In December
> >>> we also celebrated the 20th anniversary of IPv6 standardization - RFC
> 1883.
> >>>
> >>> I'm wondering when we reach another significant milestone - 50% :-)
> >>>
> >>> Tomas
> >> Given the recent doubling growth, and assuming this trend is
> >> following a logistic function, then, rounding the numbers a bit for
> neatness, I get:
> >>
> >> Jan 2016: 10%
> >> Jan 2017: 20%
> >> Jan 2018: 33%
> >> Jan 2019: 50%
> >> Jan 2020: 67%
> >> Jan 2021: 80%
> >> Jan 2022: 90%
> >>
> >> with IPv4 traffic then halving year by year from then on, and IPv4
> >> switch-off (ie. traffic < 1%) around 2027.
> >>
> >> Neil
> > Just a reminder, that 10% is a global number.
> >
> > The number in the USA is 25% today in general, is 37% for mobile device=
s.
> >
> > Furthermore, forecasting is a dark art that frequently simply extends
> > the past onto the future. It does not account for purposeful
> > engineering design like the "world IPv6 launch" or iOS updates.
> >
> > For example, once Apple cleanses the app store of IPv4 apps in 2016 as
> > they have committed and pushes one of their ubiquitous iOS updates,
> > you may see substantial jumps over night in IPv6 eyeballs, possibly
> > meaningful moving that 37% number to over 50% in a few shorts weeks.
> >
> > This will squarely make it clear that IPv4 is minority legacy protocol
> > for all of mobile, and thusly the immediate future of the internet.
>=20
> I for one welcome the iOS update that brings v6 APN native access to my
> phone, or at least v4v6 APN setting.
>=20
> I keep hearing rumors it is "coming soon".
>=20
> This could have a similar step function in the traffic and graphs.
