[186787] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: Another Big day for IPv6 - 10% native penetration
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Jared Mauch)
Mon Jan 4 11:28:20 2016
X-Original-To: nanog@nanog.org
From: Jared Mauch <jared@puck.nether.net>
In-Reply-To: <CAD6AjGRhx-21dU5aRG8pZ1Kx3jkesdXBCRBxjyyFq6z6u7p-aA@mail.gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 4 Jan 2016 11:28:16 -0500
To: Ca By <cb.list6@gmail.com>
Cc: "nanog@nanog.org" <nanog@nanog.org>
Errors-To: nanog-bounces@nanog.org
> On Jan 4, 2016, at 11:09 AM, Ca By <cb.list6@gmail.com> wrote:
>=20
>> On Mon, Jan 4, 2016 at 3:26 AM, Neil Harris <neil@tonal.clara.co.uk> wrot=
e:
>>=20
>>> On 02/01/16 15:35, Tomas Podermanski wrote:
>>>=20
>>> Hi,
>>>=20
>>> according to Google's statistics
>>> (https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html) on 31st December
>>> 2015 the IPv6 penetration reached 10% for the very first time. Just a
>>> little reminder. On 20th Nov 2012 the number was 1%. In December we also=
>>> celebrated the 20th anniversary of IPv6 standardization - RFC 1883.
>>>=20
>>> I'm wondering when we reach another significant milestone - 50% :-)
>>>=20
>>> Tomas
>> Given the recent doubling growth, and assuming this trend is following a
>> logistic function, then, rounding the numbers a bit for neatness, I get:
>>=20
>> Jan 2016: 10%
>> Jan 2017: 20%
>> Jan 2018: 33%
>> Jan 2019: 50%
>> Jan 2020: 67%
>> Jan 2021: 80%
>> Jan 2022: 90%
>>=20
>> with IPv4 traffic then halving year by year from then on, and IPv4
>> switch-off (ie. traffic < 1%) around 2027.
>>=20
>> Neil
> Just a reminder, that 10% is a global number.
>=20
> The number in the USA is 25% today in general, is 37% for mobile devices.
>=20
> Furthermore, forecasting is a dark art that frequently simply extends the
> past onto the future. It does not account for purposeful engineering
> design like the "world IPv6 launch" or iOS updates.
>=20
> For example, once Apple cleanses the app store of IPv4 apps in 2016 as the=
y
> have committed and pushes one of their ubiquitous iOS updates, you may see=
> substantial jumps over night in IPv6 eyeballs, possibly meaningful moving
> that 37% number to over 50% in a few shorts weeks.
>=20
> This will squarely make it clear that IPv4 is minority legacy protocol for=
> all of mobile, and thusly the immediate future of the internet.
I for one welcome the iOS update that brings v6 APN native access to my phon=
e, or at least v4v6 APN setting.=20
I keep hearing rumors it is "coming soon".=20
This could have a similar step function in the traffic and graphs.=20=
