[186783] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: Another Big day for IPv6 - 10% native penetration
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Neil Harris)
Mon Jan 4 09:23:12 2016
X-Original-To: nanog@nanog.org
From: Neil Harris <neil@tonal.clara.co.uk>
To: Tomas Podermanski <tpoder@cis.vutbr.cz>, nanog@nanog.org
Date: Mon, 4 Jan 2016 11:26:12 +0000
In-Reply-To: <5687EE2E.4060709@cis.vutbr.cz>
Errors-To: nanog-bounces@nanog.org
On 02/01/16 15:35, Tomas Podermanski wrote:
> Hi,
>
> according to Google's statistics
> (https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html) on 31st December
> 2015 the IPv6 penetration reached 10% for the very first time. Just a
> little reminder. On 20th Nov 2012 the number was 1%. In December we also
> celebrated the 20th anniversary of IPv6 standardization - RFC 1883.
>
> I'm wondering when we reach another significant milestone - 50% :-)
>
> Tomas
>
Given the recent doubling growth, and assuming this trend is following a
logistic function, then, rounding the numbers a bit for neatness, I get:
Jan 2016: 10%
Jan 2017: 20%
Jan 2018: 33%
Jan 2019: 50%
Jan 2020: 67%
Jan 2021: 80%
Jan 2022: 90%
with IPv4 traffic then halving year by year from then on, and IPv4
switch-off (ie. traffic < 1%) around 2027.
Neil
