[161406] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: What Should an Engineer Address when 'Selling' IPv6 to Executives?
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Owen DeLong)
Tue Mar 12 13:46:24 2013
From: Owen DeLong <owen@delong.com>
In-Reply-To: <1363109557.69828.YahooMailNeo@web31801.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
Date: Tue, 12 Mar 2013 10:45:27 -0700
To: David Barak <thegameiam@yahoo.com>
Cc: "nanog@nanog.org" <nanog@nanog.org>,
"kpospisek@bigpond.com" <kpospisek@bigpond.com>
Errors-To: nanog-bounces+nanog.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@nanog.org
Once IPv6 is sufficiently ubiquitous (rough estimate, but say 900+ of =
the Alexa 1000 sites have IPv6 and ~95% of eyeball networks), you'll see =
a rapidly declining desire to pay the increased cost of supporting IPv4.
Combine that with the fact that as the internet continues to try and =
grow, the longer IPv4 remains relevant, the more cobbled, hacked, =
layered, NATted it will become. All of these additional heroic measures =
to keep IPv4 running will have a huge and multiplying cost. The network =
will be increasingly complex and harder to troubleshoot while also =
becoming increasingly fragile. The end user experience will be degraded =
by the additional layering while the service providers costs to provide =
that service are increasing because of the need to provide additional =
equipment and man-hours to manage the growing complexity. As the costs =
of supporting IPv4 go up, ISPs will have no choice but to pass that cost =
along to customers.
Eventually, some IPv6 ready customers will not want to continue =
subsidizing the IPv4 costs and will insist that the cost increases =
related to IPv4 be billed to the IPv4 customers. Once IPv4 becomes a =
separate and increasing charge on people's internet bills, the economics =
will further drive the transition away from IPv4.
Will we have isolated pockets of IPv4 within organizations for years to =
come? Sure.
How long will IPv4 remain the lingua franca of the internet? I'm pretty =
sure that will be less than a decade and likely ~5 years at this point.
Owen
On Mar 12, 2013, at 10:32 , David Barak <thegameiam@yahoo.com> wrote:
>=20
> From: Owen DeLong <owen@delong.com>
>=20
> >Dual stack is a (very) temporary solution while waiting for some =
others to catch
> >up and deploy IPv6. Contemplating dual-stack as a permanent or =
long-term
> >solution ignores the extent to which IPv4 is utterly unsustainable at =
this point.
> >Owen
> =20
> Owen, when do you think IPv4 is going to go away to the point that it =
will no longer be necessary to carry it? We may be using "long-term" to =
mean different things, so I'm curious to see what you mean by that.
>=20
> David Barak
> Need Geek Rock? Try The Franchise:=20
> http://www.listentothefranchise.com
>=20
