[141233] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: Why no IPv6-only day (Was: Protocol-41 is not the only tunneling
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Matthew Petach)
Mon Jun 6 19:41:45 2011
In-Reply-To: <B53BEF53-F327-44ED-8F23-A85042E99B3F@delong.com>
Date: Mon, 6 Jun 2011 16:41:36 -0700
From: Matthew Petach <mpetach@netflight.com>
To: Owen DeLong <owen@delong.com>
Cc: "nanog@nanog.org" <nanog@nanog.org>, Jason Fesler <jfesler@gigo.com>
Errors-To: nanog-bounces+nanog.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@nanog.org
On Mon, Jun 6, 2011 at 2:36 PM, Owen DeLong <owen@delong.com> wrote:
> On Jun 6, 2011, at 2:23 PM, Mark Andrews wrote:
...
>> IPv4 will never reach those figures. =A0IPv6 isn't preferenced enough fo=
r
>> that to happen and IPv6-only sites have methods of reaching IPv4 only
>> sites (DS-Lite, NAT64/DNS64).
>
> I think you'll be surprised over time. Given the tendency of the internet
> to nearly double in size every 2 years or so, it only takes 7 cycles (abo=
ut
> 15 years) for the existing network to become a single-digit percentage
> of the future network.
>
> Owen
Hm. With roughly 1B people on the internet today[0], 7 cycles of
doubling would mean that in 15 years, we'd have 128B people
on the internet?
I strongly suspect the historical growth curve will *not* continue
at that pace.
Matt
[0] http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm [1]
[1] I am strongly suspicious of their data, so my estimate lops their
number in half. If you believe their data, in seven doublings, we'll
be at 256B in 15 years. I find that number to be equally preposterous.
