[141223] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: Why no IPv6-only day (Was: Protocol-41 is not the only tunneling
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Owen DeLong)
Mon Jun 6 18:01:22 2011
From: Owen DeLong <owen@delong.com>
In-Reply-To: <20110606212324.ED215105E66B@drugs.dv.isc.org>
Date: Mon, 6 Jun 2011 14:36:26 -0700
To: Mark Andrews <marka@isc.org>
Cc: "nanog@nanog.org" <nanog@nanog.org>, Jason Fesler <jfesler@gigo.com>
Errors-To: nanog-bounces+nanog.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@nanog.org
On Jun 6, 2011, at 2:23 PM, Mark Andrews wrote:
>=20
> In message <alpine.BSF.2.00.1106060732190.68892@goat.gigo.com>, Jason =
Fesler wr
> ites:
>>> But anyway, just consider it: a portion of the major websites go
>>> IPv6-only for 24 hours. What happens is that well, 99% of the =
populace
>>> can't reach them anymore, as the known ones are down, they start =
calling
>>> and thus overloading the helpdesks of their ISPs.
>>=20
>> Won't happen this year or next. Too much money at stake for the web=20=
>> sites. Only when IPv4 is single digits or less could this be even=20
>> remotely considered. Even the 0.05% hit for a day was controverial =
at=20
>> $dayjob.
>=20
> IPv4 will never reach those figures. IPv6 isn't preferenced enough =
for
> that to happen and IPv6-only sites have methods of reaching IPv4 only
> sites (DS-Lite, NAT64/DNS64).
I think you'll be surprised over time. Given the tendency of the =
internet
to nearly double in size every 2 years or so, it only takes 7 cycles =
(about
15 years) for the existing network to become a single-digit percentage
of the future network.
Owen
