[141240] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: Why no IPv6-only day (Was: Protocol-41 is not the only tunneling
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (=?UTF-8?B?SsOpcsO0bWUgTmljb2xsZQ==)
Mon Jun 6 20:00:28 2011
In-Reply-To: <BANLkTimxorkYrhFqNWMWBukya5VAhMXfWw@mail.gmail.com>
From: =?UTF-8?B?SsOpcsO0bWUgTmljb2xsZQ==?= <jerome@ceriz.fr>
Date: Tue, 7 Jun 2011 01:56:27 +0200
To: Matthew Petach <mpetach@netflight.com>
Cc: Jason Fesler <jfesler@gigo.com>, "nanog@nanog.org" <nanog@nanog.org>
Errors-To: nanog-bounces+nanog.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@nanog.org
2011/6/7 Matthew Petach <mpetach@netflight.com>:
> Hm. =C2=A0With roughly 1B people on the internet today[0], 7 cycles of
> doubling would mean that in 15 years, we'd have 128B people
> on the internet?
>
> I strongly suspect the historical growth curve will *not* continue
> at that pace.
Well, todays Internet is made of 1B pairs of eyeballs with a roughly
average of 120kbps each. Todays average in France is closer to
180kbps, it was closer to 100kbps two years ago (the 3-strikes law
side-effect made individual bw consumption spikes with the emergence
of many streaming services, far more BW-hungry than soft P2P protocols
like eMule), whilst operators gained 8% of annual organic growth (18
to 21M subscribers). That's a bit more than 200% in 2 years. Before
that, the avergae bw consumtion was relativelly stable over the last 6
years or so, only the number of residential access subscribers grew.
Over the years to come, we'll still see some regions with a growing
number of individual accesses while the well-connected regions will
see their BW consumption grow even larger with new services. Isn't it
what FTTH deployments all around the world are all about ?
--=20
J=C3=A9r=C3=B4me Nicolle
