[138506] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Owen DeLong)
Tue Mar 8 23:43:45 2011
From: Owen DeLong <owen@delong.com>
In-Reply-To: <alpine.DEB.1.10.1103090409180.7942@uplift.swm.pp.se>
Date: Tue, 8 Mar 2011 20:40:51 -0800
To: Mikael Abrahamsson <swmike@swm.pp.se>
Cc: nanog@nanog.org
Errors-To: nanog-bounces+nanog.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@nanog.org
You have ignored the probability of disaggregation due to IP trading =
markets, especially
given the wild-west nature of the APNIC transfer policy.
Many of the legacy blocks will get dramatically disaggregated in the =
likely market which
could take the DFZ well beyond 500k routes.
It will be very interesting to watch.
Owen
On Mar 8, 2011, at 7:17 PM, Mikael Abrahamsson wrote:
>=20
> Hi.
>=20
> We had an interesting discussion the other day at work. We were =
speculating on how many DFZ IPv4 routes there would be at peak in the =
future before it starts to decline again due to less IPv4 usage. The =
current number is around 350k, and my personal estimation is that it =
would grow by at least 100k more due to the the last 5 /8s being carved =
up at around /22 meaning each /8 ending up with 16k routes, plus the =
last allocations being seen in the remaining RIR "normal allocations" =
would be smaller than before plus de-aggregation of space as people =
"sell" or "lease" subspace of their allocations.
>=20
> My guess therefore is a peak around 450-500k IPv4 DFZ routes and that =
this would happen in around 3-5 years. I wanted to record this for =
posterity.
>=20
> What is your guess, any why?
>=20
> --=20
> Mikael Abrahamsson email: swmike@swm.pp.se
