[138507] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (George Herbert)
Tue Mar 8 23:56:40 2011
In-Reply-To: <1A267DE4-0F98-41E3-A0FC-19021EA4406E@delong.com>
Date: Tue, 8 Mar 2011 20:55:57 -0800
From: George Herbert <george.herbert@gmail.com>
To: Owen DeLong <owen@delong.com>
Cc: nanog@nanog.org
Errors-To: nanog-bounces+nanog.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@nanog.org
On Tue, Mar 8, 2011 at 8:40 PM, Owen DeLong <owen@delong.com> wrote:
> You have ignored the probability of disaggregation due to IP trading mark=
ets, especially
> given the wild-west nature of the APNIC transfer policy.
>
> Many of the legacy blocks will get dramatically disaggregated in the like=
ly market which
> could take the DFZ well beyond 500k routes.
>
> It will be very interesting to watch.
>
> Owen
>
> On Mar 8, 2011, at 7:17 PM, Mikael Abrahamsson wrote:
>
>>
>> Hi.
>>
>> We had an interesting discussion the other day at work. We were speculat=
ing on how many DFZ IPv4 routes there would be at peak in the future before=
it starts to decline again due to less IPv4 usage. The current number is a=
round 350k, and my personal estimation is that it would grow by at least 10=
0k more due to the the last 5 /8s being carved up at around /22 meaning eac=
h /8 ending up with 16k routes, plus the last allocations being seen in the=
remaining RIR "normal allocations" would be smaller than before plus de-ag=
gregation of space as people "sell" or "lease" subspace of their allocation=
s.
>>
>> My guess therefore is a peak around 450-500k IPv4 DFZ routes and that th=
is would happen in around 3-5 years. I wanted to record this for posterity.
>>
>> What is your guess, any why?
Strange, had this exact conversation with a boutique ISP owner I know
earlier today...
My hope is that things peak around 510k and that routers that can
handle about a million routes now can handle all of IPv4Peak and IPv6
growth for their economic lifetimes.
Disaggregation and leasing of space (or whatever) could easily spike
that significantly, but aren't likely to further increase the rate of
new announcements, merely how long we keep going with them.
I predict that we can't really predict this yet; IPv6 actual adoption
isn't far enough along to tell how bad that will end up being.
If it's five years before it dominates things, we're screwed on IPv4
tables. People who need smallish but routeable blocks will be able to
find them and pry them loose via enough funds and announce them. 5
more years of that, and current routers go "poof". Many go "poof"
sooner.
--=20
-george william herbert
george.herbert@gmail.com
