[137766] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: [arin-ppml] NAT444 rumors (was Re: Looking for an IPv6naysayer...)
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Owen DeLong)
Fri Feb 18 17:08:06 2011
From: Owen DeLong <owen@delong.com>
In-Reply-To: <4D5EC38A.4000905@ispalliance.net>
Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2011 14:03:13 -0800
To: Scott Helms <khelms@ispalliance.net>
Cc: nanog@nanog.org
Errors-To: nanog-bounces+nanog.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@nanog.org
On Feb 18, 2011, at 11:07 AM, Scott Helms wrote:
> On 2/18/2011 1:53 PM, Franck Martin wrote:
>> http://www.jetcafe.org/~npc/isp/large.html
>>=20
>> If you take the 5 top US ISPs and get them to do dual stack IPv6, =
that's 50 million subscribers in the US only.
>>=20
>> I think google and others will notice some serious traffic happening.
> We're years from the point where any one of them will have more than a =
tiny fraction of their traffic as IPv6 and that's assuming that all we =
have to deal with are the known problems.
>=20
If by years, you mean 18 months and by tiny fraction you mean more than =
10%, then, sure, you are correct.
>> It took a market share of 10 to 20% of Mozilla for web developers to =
go back to support ALL browsers. Same for mobile web site a 10% surfing =
rate got many companies to develop web sites for mobiles.
>=20
> Not really comparable because in both of those cases users were making =
a choice, because they perceived some benefit, and hence there was =
demand to adapt to those new platforms. There is almost 0 demand for =
IPv6 from consumers and what is there is from the technologists. We =
don't have a situation where the existing infrastructure doesn't work, =
it does.
>=20
I'm betting that after IPv4 runout, users will continue to perceive a =
benefit in making the choice to connect to the
internet even though they cannot get a unique IPv4 address.
>> If I recall Comcast and Time Warner are participating in IPv6 day. =
This should create enough eyeballs to show on web analytics graph and =
provide the shift that makes nat444 irrelevant.
>=20
> I wish, but IPv6 day will be much more of a media event than anything =
else. Keep in mind that none of these things are what I wish only what =
I believe to be accurate.
>=20
The problem with this type of belief is that it serves to incite others =
to inaction, leading it to become a self-fulfilling
prophecy.
Owen
