[125522] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: Rate of growth on IPv6 not fast enough?
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Leo Bicknell)
Mon Apr 19 10:31:45 2010
Date: Mon, 19 Apr 2010 07:31:18 -0700
From: Leo Bicknell <bicknell@ufp.org>
To: nanog@nanog.org
Mail-Followup-To: nanog@nanog.org
In-Reply-To: <4BCBE891.4010206@bogus.com>
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In a message written on Sun, Apr 18, 2010 at 10:22:25PM -0700, joel jaeggli=
wrote:
> Just because the curve doesn't look steep enough now doesn't mean it=20
> won't in two years. Human behavior is hard to model and panic hasn't set=
=20
> in yet.
There is also an aspect of this transition I don't think we've seen
before (in networking). A large percentage of end users are on
technologies (cable modem, dsl, even dial up) who's configuration
is entirely driven out of a provisioning database.
Once the backbone is rolled out, the nameservers, dhcp, and
configuration servers dual-stacked many ISP's could enable IPv6 for
all of their customers overnight with only a few keystrokes. Now
they won't literally do it that way to save their support folks,
but if the need arises they will be able to push the button quite
quickly.
I suspect the middle part of this S curve is going to be much, much
steeper than anyone is predicting right now.
--=20
Leo Bicknell - bicknell@ufp.org - CCIE 3440
PGP keys at http://www.ufp.org/~bicknell/
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