[14382] in Public-Access_Computer_Systems_Forum
Project Gutenberg Numbers
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Michael Hart)
Mon May 6 19:12:58 2002
Date: Sun, 05 May 2002 13:11:43 -0400
From: Michael Hart <hart@BERYL.ILS.UNC.EDU>
To: PACS-L@LISTSERV.UH.EDU
Reply-to: "Michael S. Hart" <hart@pobox.com>
Message-id: <Pine.GSO.4.44.0205051310360.4579-100000@beryl>
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May, 2002
Can We Really Give Away A Trillion eBooks By The End Of Next Year???
Recently I have received several messages questionning whether Project
Gutenberg can actually give away a trillion eBooks by the end of 2003.
It has taken us some 30 years to do our first 5,000 eBooks, and at the
rate we are progressing, currently averaging 213 per month, if we keep
an average of only 200 per month for the next 10 months, and then keep
an average of 300 per month for the next 10 month, that should average
250 per month for the next 20 months, or 5,000 more by the end of 2003
. . .which just happens to be 20 months from now.
10 months at 200 = 2,000 books
10 months at 300 = 3,000 books
20 months at 250 = 5,000 books
We even have a little bit of a cushion, as we already have 5,152 eBook
titles online as of the moment I am writing this, and we may get extra
time, due to an extra Wednesday popping up between now and then.
We should have 35 weeks left in 2002, and 52 in 2003, and if we do get
the extra Wednesday, that would be 88 weeks to do 4848 eBooks, or just
an average 55 per week until then. This year we have done 851 in just
17 weeks for an average of 50 per week. Last year we did 1240 eBooks,
for an average of 103 per month, or about 25 per week, so if we manage
to grow at all next year, even by only 10%, we should make it:
Grand Yearly Monthly Weekly Daily
Year Total Total Total Total Total
2001 4292 1240 103 24 3.4
2002 6792 2500 206 48 6.8
2003 10000 3208 267 62 8.8
So, we actually don't have to grow as much next year as this year....
***
Some of the people not only doubt we can reach 10,000 in 20 months, a
figure I think I have just defended quite well, but they also have an
entirely different doubt that we can reach 100,000,000 people with an
average eBook from our collection.
When Project Gutenberg started in 1971, we would have had to reach an
approximate 2.7% of the world population to reach 100,000,000 people,
when the population was 3.707 billion. [World Population Clock]
By the time we reach 10,000 eBooks around the end of 2003, that would
require only 1.5x% of the world population. In 2008 that percentage,
by their prediction, will fall below 1.5% to 1.4x%.
By 2050 the world population is predicted to have passed 9 billion on
the way to 10 billion, where it might stabilize, if we are lucky. 1%
of that population is all it takes to reach 100 million readers.
Others state that their is too much illiteracy or computer illiterate
portions of the world to reach 100 million readers, but I say that 1%
is a reasonable figure, one we may even easily be able to surpass.
Thanks!
Always nice to hear from you!
Michael S. Hart
<hart@pobox.com>
Project Gutenberg
"*Ask Dr. Internet*"
Executive Coordinator
"*Internet User ~#100*"
