[2774] in Commercialization & Privatization of the Internet
The future of the Internet
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (drw@BOURBAKI.MIT.EDU)
Sat May 30 17:25:08 1992
Date: Sat, 30 May 92 17:22:49 EDT
From: drw@BOURBAKI.MIT.EDU
To: com-priv@psi.com
It seems to me that all of the flamage over NREN, NSFNET, and the
future of the Internet is lacking a perspective on the future of the
Internet as a whole. I would like to propose a few points on the
future of the Internet that make a great deal of difference how we
analyze the issues:
1. The Internet will become truly world-wide: The United States (even
if you include Canada and Mexico) accounts for only about 1/3 of the
population and economy of the industrialized world. Thus, North
America will account for only about 1/3 of the Internet hosts and
traffic once the Internet has reached its full potential.
2. The bulk of the Internet will be in support of commercial
activities: Only a small portion of the information transmission needs
of the industrialized world are "research" or "educational"
activities.
3. The Internet will be sold as a service for a fee, rather than being
delivered by a club-like consortium effort between a small number of
widely scattered users.
Taken from this point of view, we can examine certain issues in a very
different way:
A. The NREN cannot possibly form the backbone for the US Internet,
much less the Internet as a whole. This is because the National
Research and Education Network is parocial on points 1 and 2; NREN as
a concept automatically excludes 95% of potential Internet traffic.
Thus, NREN should be looked at as simply a government-funded
experiment in high-speed networking technology, not as an operational
part of the Internet.
B. Serious thought ought to be given to the development, interaction,
and economics of commercial Internet providers. Should they be
regulated as public utilities? What happens when the density of users
starts becoming comparable to that of telephones? What sort of
charging schemes are possible, and how do they affect the competitive
interaction between providers?
C. Should ubiquitous service be a goal? When the merchant sends a
credit card number to be verified, why not do it by Internet?
D. How would a ubiquitous Internet compete with ISDN? Should Internet
service be provided by telephone companies (which leads to certain
efficiencies of organization)?
Dale Worley Dept. of Math., MIT drw@math.mit.edu
--
If there are no Platonic ideals, then what did we fight for?
-- a Spanish Republican
