[97888] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: peter lothberg's mother slashdotted
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Stephen Wilcox)
Fri Jul 13 07:45:02 2007
Date: Fri, 13 Jul 2007 12:33:16 +0100
From: Stephen Wilcox <steve.wilcox@packetrade.com>
To: Robert Blayzor <rblayzor@inoc.net>
Cc: nanog@nanog.org
In-Reply-To: <46975C58.4070602@inoc.net>
Errors-To: owner-nanog@merit.edu
On Fri, Jul 13, 2007 at 07:04:56AM -0400, Robert Blayzor wrote:
>
> Jeff Kell wrote:
> >If we continue along orders of magnitude, sure it's foreseeable.
> >
> >* 30 years ago, 300 baud was the bomb :-)
> >* 3000 baud was roughly 2400bps days
> >* 30000 baud gets us to ~28.8k
> >* 300000 baud was about 2 ISDN lines (2x128k)
> >* 3000000 baud is about typical cable these days (3m)
>
>
> Well using your logic, then it's partially true that 40G is not any time
> soon. Especially considering fiber is in less than 1% of homes. Lets
> not forget that all of the above has been established on existing
> facilities that have been in homes for 30-50+ years.
hmm.. at least here in the UK cable companies built out during the 90s in just a few years covering a large % of the population. upgrades in CO technology (DSLAMs etc) seems to occur every 4-5yrs too so I dont think anything radical can be considered unachievable if you allow 5-10yrs for rollout
>
> You say 30 years ago, and lets roughly estimate it's four to five years
> between those technologies above, which gets us to today. It's going to
> take at least another 5 years to consider FTTP "the norm" at say 30M,
> maybe sooner with technologies with DOCSIS 2.0, etc. So...
>
> 30M Is Today +4/5 years
> 300M Is Today +8/10 years
> 3G Is Today +12/15 years
> 30G Is Today +16/20 years
I was thinking about this bandwidth question recently too altho a bit differently.
1991 = 14.4kbps dialup
1994 = 28kbps dialup
1995 = 33kbps
1996 = 56kbps dialup
2000 = 512k dsl
2006 = 10Mb cable/dsl
approximately speaking we increase an order of magnitude every 5 years, so perhaps we can expect:
2010 = 50Mb
2015 = 500Mb
2020 = 5Gb
2025 = 50Gb
so our estimates are similar :)
my guess is that wont be achieved with OC768 either.. i dont know if we can go that far with copper but it wouldnt surprise me.
Steve
>
> If it's sooner all the better. Keeping in mind, installations like
> Verizon FiOS don't run dedicated strands of glass to each home, they use
> PON. So achieving anywhere near 40G on even the existing stuff they're
> running into homes may not be possible for quite some time...
>
> PS -- baud != bps
>
> -Robert
