[31416] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: exponential route prefix growth, was: Re: The Cidr Report
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (J. Scott Marcus)
Fri Sep 22 18:39:31 2000
Message-Id: <3.0.5.32.20000922183346.00aa5100@pobox3.genuity.com>
Date: Fri, 22 Sep 2000 18:33:46 -0400
To: Kai Schlichting <kai@pac-rim.net>
From: "J. Scott Marcus" <smarcus@genuity.com>
Cc: nanog@merit.edu
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At 15:38 09/22/2000 -0400, Kai Schlichting wrote:
>
>At Friday 03:00 PM 9/22/00, Tony Bates wrote:
>
>>Check http://www.employees.org/~tbates/cidr.plot.html for a plot
>>of the table history.
>
>Is this just me, or has noone commented on this in a while?
>Somehow we are seeing an exponential growth in the number of prefixes
>in the last 12 months, while it was linear for the 5 years
>before that ( http://www.employees.org/~tbates/cidr.hist.plot.html )...
Actually, I have been looking at Tony's plots of active AS numbers for some
time, and every time I do, I get a nervous twitch in my gut.
Thanks for your post, Kai... You inspired me to do the obvious analysis.
It turns out that the trend did not suddently become exponential; rather,
it was exponential all the time, as near as I can figure. Tony was kind
enough to ship me his source data. I cleaned up the obvious outliers
(significant deviation from monotonic non-decreasing, i.e. the big dips in
his graph) by hand and ran a quick exponential regression.
The R-squared (goodness of fit) for the full sequence going back to 1996
comes out at .9957 - as good a fit as you are ever likely to see on real
data. It's a beautiful, textbook result. Exponential!
If I did not fat finger the math, the implications are obvious, and troubling.
- Scott (speaking only for himself)
