[186792] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: Another Big day for IPv6 - 10% native penetration
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Owen DeLong)
Mon Jan 4 15:01:48 2016
X-Original-To: nanog@nanog.org
From: Owen DeLong <owen@delong.com>
In-Reply-To: <Pine.LNX.4.61.1601041113060.10544@soloth.lewis.org>
Date: Mon, 4 Jan 2016 11:59:40 -0800
To: Jon Lewis <jlewis@lewis.org>
Cc: "nanog@nanog.org" <nanog@nanog.org>
Errors-To: nanog-bounces@nanog.org
>=20
>=20
> Add to that the fact that as we run closer to (or further into?) =
run-out, at some point there's likely to be a rapid acceleration in v6 =
provisioning as networks finally realize that they can't reasonably get =
any more v4 space or their end-user customers finally begin to demand =
v6.
>=20
> If Brighthouse has people on-list...you're embarrassingly late to this =
party...and its time to start calling out end-user providers that still =
don't even offer v6.
Here=E2=80=99s the thing, from my perspective (and I=E2=80=99ve been =
doing this for a while and I think I have a pretty good perspective from =
talking to a lot of people from all different levels and areas of =
involved)=E2=80=A6
Eyeball providers have an inherent forcing function. They _WILL_ run out =
of IPv4 addresses and they will have no choice but to start bringing up =
some new customers on IPv6. They will eventually need to recycle =
addresses allocated to current customers to things like CGN if they =
still have to maintain IPv4 connectivity for their customers.
The real focus that needs to move now is content.
Check out http://www.delong.com/ipv6_alexa500.html =
<http://www.delong.com/ipv6_alexa500.html> and/or =
http://www.delong.com/ipv6_fortune500.html =
<http://www.delong.com/ipv6_fortune500.html> for a look at how this is =
going=E2=80=A6 It=E2=80=99s _NOT_ good.
18% (90) of the top 500 web sites even have an AAAA record for the =
domain name.
Interestingly, there are 18 more sites (108, still 18%) that have AAAA =
records for www.domain name.
Unfortunately, only 13.8% (69) of those return a status 200 in response =
to a query for the domain name
and only 16.2% (81) for www.domain name as of this writing.
For the fortune 500, it=E2=80=99s even more bleak. 13 sites (2.63%) have =
AAAA records with only 9 (1.82%) of them
returning status 200.
These numbers might be slightly pessimistic because 3XX series responses =
are not counted as good.
So long as the content situation remains this bad, there is no option to =
turn off IPv4 at the eyeball level.
Additionally, there=E2=80=99s a large volume of consumer devices that =
are IPv4 only still being produced. This is a huge problem.
IMHO, that=E2=80=99s the truly critical issue.
Eyeball providers that haven=E2=80=99t started to move yet are much more =
capable of an accelerated deployment using a well trod path at this =
point and will have more than ample motivation relatively soon.
On the content side, however, so far the motivations are somewhat =
limited and require vision and foresight which is often lacking in =
corporate leadership.
Owen
