[164992] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: How big is the Internet?
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Patrick W. Gilmore)
Thu Aug 15 00:26:30 2013
From: "Patrick W. Gilmore" <patrick@ianai.net>
In-Reply-To: <alpine.GSO.2.00.1308142345170.26369@clifden.donelan.com>
Date: Thu, 15 Aug 2013 00:25:08 -0400
To: NANOG list <nanog@nanog.org>
Errors-To: nanog-bounces+nanog.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@nanog.org
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On Aug 15, 2013, at 00:19 , Sean Donelan <sean@donelan.com> wrote:
> On Wed, 14 Aug 2013, Patrick W. Gilmore wrote:
>> It is actually even harder than the above illustrates. Most people =
define "Mbps on the Internet" as inter-AS bits. But then what about =
Akamai AANP nodes, Google GGC nodes, Netflix Open Connect nodes, etc.? =
They are all inside the AS. Given that Akamai claims to be 20% of all =
broadband traffic, Google is on the same order, and NF claims to be 30% =
of US peak-evening traffic, it seems like it would be foolish to ignore =
this traffic.
>>=20
>> I could go on, but you get the point. Definitions are a bitch.
>=20
> Some of that may help explain why the Internet traffic estimates seem =
to be too high or too low since about 2007. The primary data sources for
> the Internet traffic estimates seem to be mostly Internet backbones =
and Internet exchange points.
>=20
> I hadn't been paying attention until I looked at a bunch of companies' =
investor filings this week because the size of the Internet was in the =
news. If you add up the percentages that companies are telling =
investors and policy makers, you end up with more than 100%. Most of the =
companies' investor reports don't explain % of what. But the few that
> do, end up pointing back to the same traffic forecast reports. That =
doesn't even get to the "long tail" of small providers that don't report =
anything.
>=20
> Either there is a lot of traffic missing, or market concentration is =
much greater than assumed.
I am not at all surprised the sum of percentages is > 100.
User on Joe's-DSL-and-Bait store sends a packet up through =
Mary's-backbone-and-coffee shop to Bill's-other-transit-and-sandwich =
cart which finally lands on Comcast. (Didn't see that coming, did you? =
:)
All four networks are going to claim that packet, but a true accounting =
of "petabytes downloaded per day" will only count it once.
--=20
TTFN,
patrick
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