[162545] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: "It's the end of the world as we know it" -- REM
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Owen DeLong)
Wed Apr 24 14:51:22 2013
From: Owen DeLong <owen@delong.com>
In-Reply-To: <51782830.6010706@kenweb.org>
Date: Wed, 24 Apr 2013 14:49:08 -0400
To: ml@kenweb.org
Cc: nanog@nanog.org
Errors-To: nanog-bounces+nanog.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@nanog.org
On Apr 24, 2013, at 2:45 PM, ML <ml@kenweb.org> wrote:
> On 4/23/2013 5:41 PM, Valdis Kletnieks wrote:
>> I didn't see any mention of this Tony Hain paper:
>>=20
>> http://tndh.net/~tony/ietf/ARIN-runout-projection.pdf
>>=20
>> tl;dr: ARIN predicted to run out of IP space to allocate in August =
this year.
>>=20
>> Are you ready?
>>=20
>=20
>=20
> Where do the startup ISPs whom didn't qualify for PI IPv4 in the past
> fit into a post-run out world where they would qualify?
> I am speaking in generics but also about a real ISP that is in this
> situation today.=20
>=20
> In my example This ISP could show need for a /22 but wasn't =
multihoming
> at the time and likely will not until after run-out.=20
> How does such an ISP begin to address their backbone and customers
> facing interfaces without tying themselves to an ISP and their PA =
space?
>=20
> I don't imagine they will be open to paying extortion prices for IPs
> that other people never bothered to use.
As it currently stands in the ARIN region, the qualifications for =
transfer and for
obtaining space from the free pool are identical. Currently, the only =
difference
is that they could obtain 24 months worth of address space via transfer =
and
only 3 months from the free pool.
Bottom line, anyone building a business today depending on the continued
availability of an IPv4 free pool from an RIR is taking on a very high =
degree
of risk. IMHO, such a business plan would be ill-advised, to say the =
least.
Owen
