[141237] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: Why no IPv6-only day (Was: Protocol-41 is not the only tunneling
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Mark Andrews)
Mon Jun 6 19:53:59 2011
To: Owen DeLong <owen@delong.com>
From: Mark Andrews <marka@isc.org>
In-reply-to: Your message of "Mon, 06 Jun 2011 14:36:26 MST."
<B53BEF53-F327-44ED-8F23-A85042E99B3F@delong.com>
Date: Tue, 07 Jun 2011 09:49:14 +1000
Cc: "nanog@nanog.org" <nanog@nanog.org>, Jason Fesler <jfesler@gigo.com>
Errors-To: nanog-bounces+nanog.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@nanog.org
In message <B53BEF53-F327-44ED-8F23-A85042E99B3F@delong.com>, Owen DeLong write
s:
>
> On Jun 6, 2011, at 2:23 PM, Mark Andrews wrote:
>
> >=20
> > In message <alpine.BSF.2.00.1106060732190.68892@goat.gigo.com>, Jason =
> Fesler wr
> > ites:
> >>> But anyway, just consider it: a portion of the major websites go
> >>> IPv6-only for 24 hours. What happens is that well, 99% of the =
> populace
> >>> can't reach them anymore, as the known ones are down, they start =
> calling
> >>> and thus overloading the helpdesks of their ISPs.
> >>=20
> >> Won't happen this year or next. Too much money at stake for the web=20=
>
> >> sites. Only when IPv4 is single digits or less could this be even=20
> >> remotely considered. Even the 0.05% hit for a day was controverial =
> at=20
> >> $dayjob.
> >=20
> > IPv4 will never reach those figures. IPv6 isn't preferenced enough =
> for
> > that to happen and IPv6-only sites have methods of reaching IPv4 only
> > sites (DS-Lite, NAT64/DNS64).
>
> I think you'll be surprised over time. Given the tendency of the =
> internet
> to nearly double in size every 2 years or so, it only takes 7 cycles =
> (about
> 15 years) for the existing network to become a single-digit percentage
> of the future network.
>
> Owen
And without there being a strong IPv6 bias in the clients they will
continue to use IPv4/IPv6 on a 50/50 basis. I would be quite happy
to be proven wrong and only time will tell.
--
Mark Andrews, ISC
1 Seymour St., Dundas Valley, NSW 2117, Australia
PHONE: +61 2 9871 4742 INTERNET: marka@isc.org
