[138536] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Owen DeLong)
Wed Mar 9 12:29:57 2011
From: Owen DeLong <owen@delong.com>
In-Reply-To: <4E69369F-BA08-4FCD-B589-22C2EE5E987B@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 9 Mar 2011 09:28:02 -0800
To: Arturo Servin <arturo.servin@gmail.com>
Cc: NANOG list <nanog@nanog.org>
Errors-To: nanog-bounces+nanog.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@nanog.org
On Mar 9, 2011, at 4:06 AM, Arturo Servin wrote:
>=20
> On 9 Mar 2011, at 07:18, Joel Jaeggli wrote:
>>=20
>> one of these curves is steeper than the other.
>=20
> That's what we wanted for the first one.
>=20
>>=20
>> =
http://www.cidr-report.org/cgi-bin/plota?file=3D%2fvar%2fdata%2fbgp%2fv6%2=
fas2.0%2fbgp-active%2etxt&descr=3DActive%20BGP%20entries%20%28FIB%29&ylabe=
l=3DActive%20BGP%20entries%20%28FIB%29&with=3Dstep
>>=20
>=20
>> =
http://www.cidr-report.org/cgi-bin/plota?file=3D%2fvar%2fdata%2fbgp%2fas2.=
0%2fbgp-active%2etxt&descr=3DActive%20BGP%20entries%20%28FIB%29&ylabel=3DA=
ctive%20BGP%20entries%20%28FIB%29&with=3Dstep
>>=20
>> If the slope on the second stays within some reasonable bounds of =
it's
>> current trajactory then everything's cool, you buy new routers on
>> schedule and the world moves on. The first one however will =
eventually
>> kill us.
>=20
> It won't, it will take an "S" shape eventually. Possibly around =
120k prefixes, then it will follow the normal growth of the Internet as =
v4 did.=20
>=20
I think it will grow a lot slower than IPv4 because with rational =
planning, few organizations should need to add more
prefixes annually, the way they had to in IPv4 due to scarcity based =
allocation policies.
Owen
