[137608] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: Solar flare to reach earth
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Valdis.Kletnieks@vt.edu)
Thu Feb 17 11:34:14 2011
To: "andrew.wallace" <andrew.wallace@rocketmail.com>
In-Reply-To: Your message of "Thu, 17 Feb 2011 07:56:19 PST."
<624439.94303.qm@web59602.mail.ac4.yahoo.com>
From: Valdis.Kletnieks@vt.edu
Date: Thu, 17 Feb 2011 11:33:22 -0500
Cc: "nanog@nanog.org" <nanog@nanog.org>
Errors-To: nanog-bounces+nanog.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@nanog.org
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On Thu, 17 Feb 2011 07:56:19 PST, "andrew.wallace" said:
> The biggest flares can disrupt technology, including power grids,
> communications systems and satellites.
> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12493980
Better references: http://www.spaceweather.com/
and http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/:
3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast issued Feb 16 22:00 UTC
Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a
chance for an isolated major flare for the next three days (17-19 February).
Region 1158 is expected to produce more M-class flares and still has the
potential for producing an M5 or greater x-ray event. There is a chance for
isolated M-class activity from Region 1161.
Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be
predominately quiet on day one (February 17). An increase to unsettled to
active conditions, with a chance for minor storm periods is expected late on
day one into day two (18 February). The increased activity is forecast due to
the expected arrival of the CME associated with the X2 flare that occurred on
15/0156Z. Day three (19 February) is expected to be quiet to active as the
disturbance subsides.
*yawn*. "active" to "minor storm". Move along, nothing much to see
except some aurora. :)
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