[136344] in North American Network Operators' Group
RE: ipv4's last graph
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Tony Hain)
Wed Feb 2 12:05:32 2011
From: "Tony Hain" <alh-ietf@tndh.net>
To: "'Geoff Huston'" <gih@apnic.net>,
"'Randy Bush'" <randy@psg.com>
In-Reply-To: <876F9BFF-4807-49A5-9D76-9FC067CCC645@apnic.net>
Date: Wed, 2 Feb 2011 09:01:34 -0800
Cc: 'NANOG Operators' Group' <nanog@nanog.org>
Errors-To: nanog-bounces+nanog.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@nanog.org
So in the interest of 'second opinions never hurt', and I just can't get my
head around "APnic sitting at 3 /8's, burning 2.3 /8's in the last 2 months
and the idea of a 50% probability that their exhaustion event occurs Aug.
2011", here are a couple other graphs to consider.
http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools.pdf
http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools-zoom.pdf
Tony
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Geoff Huston [mailto:gih@apnic.net]
> Sent: Tuesday, February 01, 2011 12:12 PM
> To: Randy Bush
> Cc: NANOG Operators' Group
> Subject: Re: ipv4's last graph
>
>
> On 01/02/2011, at 7:02 PM, Randy Bush wrote:
>
> > with the iana free pool run-out, i guess we won't be getting those
> nice
> > graphs any more. might we have one last one for the turnstiles? :-
> )/2
> >
> > and would you mind doing the curves now for each of the five rirs?
> > gotta give us all something to repeat endlessly on lists and in
> presos.
>
> but of course.
>
> http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/rir.jpg
>
> This is a different graph - it is a probabilistic graph that shows the
> predicted month when the RIR will be down to its last /8 policy
> (whatever that policy may be), and the relative probability that the
> event will occur in that particular month.
>
> The assumption behind this graph is that the barricades will go up
> across the regions and each region will work from its local address
> pools and service only its local client base, and that as each region
> gets to its last /8 policy the applicants will not transfer their
> demand to those regions where addresses are still available. Its not
> possible to quantify how (in)accurate this assumption may be, so beyond
> the prediction of the first exhaustion point (which is at this stage
> looking more likely to occur in July 2011 than not) the predictions for
> the other RIRs are highly uncertain.
>
> Geoff
