[136274] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: quietly....
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Geoff Huston)
Wed Feb 2 01:45:20 2011
From: Geoff Huston <gih@apnic.net>
In-Reply-To: <AF2238BD-55CC-4650-8CA1-5390587AFCF6@delong.com>
Date: Wed, 2 Feb 2011 17:45:12 +1100
To: Owen DeLong <owen@delong.com>
Cc: "nanog@nanog.org list" <nanog@nanog.org>
Errors-To: nanog-bounces+nanog.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@nanog.org
On 02/02/2011, at 1:11 PM, Owen DeLong wrote:
>=20
> On Feb 1, 2011, at 3:54 PM, Lee Howard wrote:
>=20
>>> "People won't be able to access our site"
>>> sure helps but being unable to put a date on it still reduces =
incentive
>>> (especially when Management get involved, and especially if there is =
a
>>> financial outlay involving firewalls etc.). =20
>>=20
>> Geoff generously provided a probabilistic sense for RIR runout:
>> http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/rir.jpg
>> Pick your RIR and plot its runout date. If it's ARIN, then the first
>> ISP is out of IPv4 addresses at most three months later (since ARIN=20=
>> now allocates for three months' need). Of course, if demand =
increases,
>> these dates might change.
>>=20
>> Will users be unable to reach your content on $RIR_runout_date + 3?
>> They might have to get there through large-scale NAT. That might
>> bother management if you rely on IP geo-location, or need to=20
>> initiate connections downstream, or rate limit per IP address, or
>> have anti-DOS techniques measuring hits per source IP address,=20
>> or have employees VPN in, or need to report intrusions, or any of
>> the many problems widely documented.
>>=20
>> Oh, and when I said to pick your RIR, I meant the RIR of users
>> who access your content.
>>=20
>> Lee
>>=20
>=20
> I think there is a key problem with Geoff's graph.
>=20
> I think it fails to take into account the transitive probability of =
requests
> among the largest 3 regions. I agree that APNIC will probably run
> just about exactly as he predicts. I think, however, that the runout
> at APNIC will create a higher demand in ARIN and RIPE. Once that
> happens, their runout dates will get moved up much closer to
> the runout date of APNIC. As soon as the second of the three
> runs out, the remaining one will get another burst of acceleration.
>=20
> It does not appear to me that this probability is accounted for in the
> plots.
>=20
> Owen
>=20
> (Including Geoff because it's not fair to criticize his work behind =
his back)
Yes - a certain (X) percent of demand will shift out from a region once =
that region's stocks are depleted. What value X realistically takes is =
not something I can factor into these models, nor can I predict where =
this unmet demand may surface in the remaining regions.=20
The future of IPv4 contains many uncertainties.
Geoff
