[136147] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: ipv4's last graph
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Geoff Huston)
Tue Feb 1 15:13:47 2011
From: Geoff Huston <gih@apnic.net>
In-Reply-To: <m262t418to.wl%randy@psg.com>
Date: Wed, 2 Feb 2011 07:11:39 +1100
To: Randy Bush <randy@psg.com>
Cc: NANOG Operators' Group <nanog@nanog.org>
Errors-To: nanog-bounces+nanog.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@nanog.org
On 01/02/2011, at 7:02 PM, Randy Bush wrote:
> with the iana free pool run-out, i guess we won't be getting those =
nice
> graphs any more. might we have one last one for the turnstiles? =
:-)/2
>=20
> and would you mind doing the curves now for each of the five rirs?
> gotta give us all something to repeat endlessly on lists and in =
presos.
but of course.
http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/rir.jpg
This is a different graph - it is a probabilistic graph that shows the =
predicted month when the RIR will be down to its last /8 policy =
(whatever that policy may be), and the relative probability that the =
event will occur in that particular month.
The assumption behind this graph is that the barricades will go up =
across the regions and each region will work from its local address =
pools and service only its local client base, and that as each region =
gets to its last /8 policy the applicants will not transfer their demand =
to those regions where addresses are still available. Its not possible =
to quantify how (in)accurate this assumption may be, so beyond the =
prediction of the first exhaustion point (which is at this stage looking =
more likely to occur in July 2011 than not) the predictions for the =
other RIRs are highly uncertain.
Geoff
