[136170] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: ipv4's last graph
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Mark Townsley)
Tue Feb 1 16:43:13 2011
From: Mark Townsley <townsley@cisco.com>
In-Reply-To: <876F9BFF-4807-49A5-9D76-9FC067CCC645@apnic.net>
Date: Tue, 1 Feb 2011 22:34:11 +0100
To: Geoff Huston <gih@apnic.net>
Cc: NANOG Operators' Group <nanog@nanog.org>
Errors-To: nanog-bounces+nanog.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@nanog.org
On Feb 1, 2011, at 9:11 PM, Geoff Huston wrote:
>=20
> On 01/02/2011, at 7:02 PM, Randy Bush wrote:
>=20
>> with the iana free pool run-out, i guess we won't be getting those =
nice
>> graphs any more. might we have one last one for the turnstiles? =
:-)/2
>>=20
>> and would you mind doing the curves now for each of the five rirs?
>> gotta give us all something to repeat endlessly on lists and in =
presos.
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> but of course.
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> http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/rir.jpg
I can almost hear the cutting and pasting going on across the globe with =
this.
- Mark
>=20
> This is a different graph - it is a probabilistic graph that shows the =
predicted month when the RIR will be down to its last /8 policy =
(whatever that policy may be), and the relative probability that the =
event will occur in that particular month.
>=20
> The assumption behind this graph is that the barricades will go up =
across the regions and each region will work from its local address =
pools and service only its local client base, and that as each region =
gets to its last /8 policy the applicants will not transfer their demand =
to those regions where addresses are still available. Its not possible =
to quantify how (in)accurate this assumption may be, so beyond the =
prediction of the first exhaustion point (which is at this stage looking =
more likely to occur in July 2011 than not) the predictions for the =
other RIRs are highly uncertain.
>=20
> Geoff
>=20
>=20
