[134313] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: 2010 IPv4 (and IPv6) Address Use Report
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Richard Barnes)
Tue Jan 4 11:30:48 2011
In-Reply-To: <49A2BD30-5F17-40FA-A862-FF8C7496DAE0@muada.com>
Date: Tue, 4 Jan 2011 11:30:43 -0500
From: Richard Barnes <richard.barnes@gmail.com>
To: Iljitsch van Beijnum <iljitsch@muada.com>
Cc: NANOG list <nanog@nanog.org>
Errors-To: nanog-bounces+nanog.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@nanog.org
Also, for a slightly more average-person-friendly view, see Iljitsch's
article in Ars Technica:
<http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/news/2011/01/2010-in-ip-addresses-225-m=
illion-down-496-million-to-go.ars>
On Tue, Jan 4, 2011 at 6:29 AM, Iljitsch van Beijnum <iljitsch@muada.com> w=
rote:
> [ (Non-cross)posted to NANOG, PPML, RIPE IPv6 wg, Dutch IPv6 TF. ]
>
> On the web:
>
> IPv4: http://www.bgpexpert.com/addrspace2010.php
> IPv6: http://www.bgpexpert.com/addrspace-ipv6-2010.php
>
> The IPv4 one is included below:
>
>
> 2010 IPv4 Address Use Report
>
> As of January 1, 2011, the number of unused IPv4 addresses is 495.66 mill=
ion. Exactly a year earlier, the number of available addresses was 721.06 m=
illion. So we collectively used up 225.4 million addresses in 2010.
>
> 35 of the 256 the /8s that make up the IPv4 address space have the status=
"reserved". 0 and 127 have special meaning and can't be used for normal pu=
rposes. 224 - 239 are used for multicast and 240 - 255 are "reserved for fu=
ture use". With only about two years worth of IPv4 addresses remaining on t=
he shelves, it would seem that that future is here now, but unfortunately, =
pretty much all operating systems balk at using a "reserved" address. So un=
reserving those addresses means upgrading EVERY system connected to the Int=
ernet. If we're going to do that, we may as well skip those reserved IPv4 a=
ddresses and upgrade to IPv6. Last but not least, there's block 10, which i=
s the largest of the three address blocks set aside for private use. The ot=
hers, 172.16.0.0/12 and 192.168.0.0/16, don't show up as reserved, but are =
obviously not available for regular use.
>
> This makes the total number of usable IPv4 addresses is (256 - 35) * 2^24=
- 2^20 - 2^16 =3D 3706.65 million addresses. The "IANA global pool" consis=
ts of 7 /8s (117.44 million) are still unused (unallocated): 39/8, 102/8, 1=
03/8, 104/8, 106/8, 179/8 and 185/8. But there's also a lot of unused space=
hiding in the "allocated" and "legacy" categories. Each RIR publishes a li=
st of address blocks further delegated to ISPs or end users every day on th=
eir FTP servers. If we add up all those blocks, this comes out to 3210.99 m=
illion addresses. So the total number of usable-but-unused IPv4 addresses i=
s 3706.65 - 3210.99 =3D 495.66 million.
>
> Going back to the IANA global pool, these are the changes over the past y=
ear:
>
> Delegated =A0 =A0Blocks =A0+/- 2010
> to/status
>
> AfriNIC =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 3 =A0 =A0 =A0+1
> APNIC =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A042 =A0 =A0 =A0+8
> ARIN =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 35 =A0 =A0 =A0+4
> LACNIC =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A08 =A0 =A0 =A0+2
> RIPE NCC =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 34 =A0 =A0 =A0+4
> LEGACY =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 92
> UNALLOCATED =A0 =A0 =A0 7 =A0 =A0 -19
>
> There is an agreement between IANA and the RIRs that each RIR will get on=
e of the last five /8s. APNIC has been getting two /8s every three months l=
ike clockwork in 2010. If this continues, they'll be getting numbers 7 and =
6 later this month, and then the final distribution will look like this:
>
> Delegated =A0 =A0Blocks =A0+/- 2010
> to/status
>
> AfriNIC =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 4
> APNIC =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A045
> ARIN =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 36
> LACNIC =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A09
> RIPE NCC =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 35
> LEGACY =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 92
> UNALLOCATED =A0 =A0 =A0 -
>
> At this point, it becomes very interesting what the status of the legacy =
space is, exactly. The legacy blocks are each "administered" by one of the =
RIRs, but does that mean that that RIR is free to further delegate that spa=
ce to ISPs and end users? There are 146.92 million unused addresses in lega=
cy space, including 16.65 million returned by Interop a few months ago. Thi=
s is the used versus unused address space administered by each RIR:
>
> =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0Legacy =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0Allocate=
d
> =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 total =A0 unused =A0 =A0 total =A0 unused
> AfriNIC =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 33.55 =A0 =A024.85 =A0 =A0 50.33 =A0 =A027.06
> APNIC =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0100.66 =A0 =A022.32 =A0 =A0704.64 =A0 =A044.=
38
> ARIN =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 654.31 =A0 =A060.55 =A0 =A0587.20 =A0 =A056.=
21
> LACNIC =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0- =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0- =A0 =A0 =A0134.22 =
=A0 =A037.39
> RIPE NCC =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A067.11 =A0 =A0 5.77 =A0 =A0570.43 =A0 =A067.38
> IANA =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 671.09 =A0 =A016.65 =A0 =A0 =A0 - =A0 =A0 =
=A0 =A0-
>
> AfriNIC used up 8.95 million addresses last year. So their current unused=
allocated space is good for another three years (if nothing changes) and t=
heir final /8 is worth another almost two years. If they get to use their l=
egacy space, that buys them another 2.5 years. So unless IPv4 address use <=
em>really</em> takes off in Africa, AfriNIC will be handing out addresses f=
or at least three or four years.
>
> APNIC is at the opposite end of the spectrum, using up no less than 126.2=
2 million new IPv4 addresses last year. Even if they get to use the legacy =
space they administer on top of three of the last seven /8s and, it's hard =
to see how APNIC can avoid having to tell people "no" before the year is ou=
t. However, there is a caveat: in the 2010 APNIC records, there is 6.65 mil=
lion addresses worth of space that isn't in the 2011 records. Part of this =
is address space returned to APNIC. In other cases, an address block delega=
ted in a previous year expands or shrinks retroactively. Depending on what =
the underlying reason for these changes is, the actual rate at which APNIC =
and the other RIRs are giving out address space may be different from what =
it seems to be at first glance.
>
> ARIN, LACNIC, and the RIPE NCC used up 54.55, 17.29, and 75.45 million ad=
dresses, respectively, in 2010. However, ARIN saw 27.24 million addresses r=
eturned, including the 16.65 million from Interop, which is administered in=
the ARIN records even though the IANA list doesn't reflect this. For AfriN=
IC, LACNIC and the RIPE NCC the numbers of addresses that came back were 0.=
31, 0.22, and 22.62 million, respectively.
>
> With respect to running out of addresses, it's important to realize that =
the Pareto principle (the 80/20 rule) applies: out of the 7686 address bloc=
ks given out last year, only 392 (5 percent) were blocks larger than 100,00=
0 addresses, but those were responsible for 82 percent of the address <em>s=
pace</em> given out. Even when the RIRs are no longer able to give out thos=
e large blocks, they may still be able to fulfill the requests for address =
blocks smaller than 10,000 addresses. Last year, 6425 such blocks were give=
n out, totaling 14.03 million addresses. It really only takes a single addr=
ess to be in the content business; it's the ISPs that need a continuous sup=
ply of new addresses to connect new customers. So the address shortages loo=
ming beyond the summer will hit ISPs and their broadband/mobile customers f=
irst and foremost, and the content industry to a much lesser degree.
>
> The top 15 IPv4 address holding countries:
>
> =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A0 =A02011-01-01 =A0 2010-01-01 =A0 =A0Increase =
=A0Country
>
> 1 =A0 =A0 - =A0 =A0 US =A0 =A01519.53 M =A0 =A01495.13 M =A0 =A0 =A0 1.6%=
=A0 United States
> 2 =A0 =A0 - =A0 =A0 CN =A0 =A0 277.64 M =A0 =A0 232.45 M =A0 =A0 =A019.4%=
=A0 China
> 3 =A0 =A0 - =A0 =A0 JP =A0 =A0 186.82 M =A0 =A0 177.15 M =A0 =A0 =A0 5.5%=
=A0 Japan
> 4 =A0 =A0 - =A0 =A0 EU =A0 =A0 151.80 M =A0 =A0 149.48 M =A0 =A0 =A0 1.6%=
=A0 Multi-country in Europe
> 5 =A0 =A0(6) =A0 =A0KR =A0 =A0 103.50 M =A0 =A0 =A077.77 M =A0 =A0 =A033.=
1% =A0 Korea
> 6 =A0 =A0(5) =A0 =A0DE =A0 =A0 =A091.61 M =A0 =A0 =A086.51 M =A0 =A0 =A0 =
5.9% =A0 Germany
> 7 =A0 =A0(9) =A0 =A0GB =A0 =A0 =A082.25 M =A0 =A0 =A074.18 M =A0 =A0 =A01=
0.9% =A0 United Kingdom
> 8 =A0 =A0 - =A0 =A0 CA =A0 =A0 =A079.53 M =A0 =A0 =A076.96 M =A0 =A0 =A0 =
3.3% =A0 Canada
> 9 =A0 =A0 - =A0 =A0 FR =A0 =A0 =A079.29 M =A0 =A0 =A075.54 M =A0 =A0 =A0 =
5.0% =A0 France
> 10 =A0 =A0- =A0 =A0 AU =A0 =A0 =A049.10 M =A0 =A0 =A039.77 M =A0 =A0 =A02=
3.5% =A0 Australia
> 11 =A0 =A0- =A0 =A0 BR =A0 =A0 =A040.24 M =A0 =A0 =A033.95 M =A0 =A0 =A01=
8.5% =A0 Brazil
> 12 =A0 =A0- =A0 =A0 IT =A0 =A0 =A037.14 M =A0 =A0 =A033.50 M =A0 =A0 =A01=
0.9% =A0 Italy
> 13 =A0 =A0- =A0 =A0 RU =A0 =A0 =A034.66 M =A0 =A0 =A028.47 M =A0 =A0 =A02=
1.7% =A0 Russia
> 14 =A0 =A0- =A0 =A0 TW =A0 =A0 =A031.93 M =A0 =A0 =A027.10 M =A0 =A0 =A01=
7.8% =A0 Taiwan
> 15 =A0 (19) =A0 IN =A0 =A0 =A028.70 M =A0 =A0 =A019.42 M =A0 =A0 =A047.8%=
=A0 India
>
> Because the US holds so much space, the increase of 25 million addresses =
seems small, but that's still more than 10% of the address space given out =
in 2010. China's growth is slowing down a little at 45 million addresses la=
st year compared to 50 million in 2009. But other countries in Asia are pic=
king up the slack and then some: Korea keeps using up large amounts of addr=
ess space, and India is now also picking up the pace. The US now has 47.3% =
of the address space in use, down from 50.1% a year ago. The other countrie=
s in the top 15 collectively hold 39.7%, up from 38%. That leaves 13% for t=
he rest of the world, up from 12%.
>
> Note that I slightly changed the way addresses are counted: previously, a=
ll the legacy blocks that didn't have an RIR listed were assumed to be used=
100%. But with the return of most of the Interop block this is no longer t=
he case: although ARIN isn't listed as administering the 45/8 block, they a=
ctually are and only have 45.0.0.0/15 listed as in use.
>
