[125532] in North American Network Operators' Group
RE: Rate of growth on IPv6 not fast enough?
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Frank Bulk - iName.com)
Mon Apr 19 12:11:30 2010
From: "Frank Bulk - iName.com" <frnkblk@iname.com>
To: "'Leo Bicknell'" <bicknell@ufp.org>,
<nanog@nanog.org>
In-Reply-To: <20100419143118.GA77881@ussenterprise.ufp.org>
Date: Mon, 19 Apr 2010 11:10:59 -0500
Reply-To: frnkblk@iname.com
Errors-To: nanog-bounces+nanog.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@nanog.org
Don't forget the home gateway aspect -- it's a huge gaping hole in the IPv6
deployment strategy for ISPs. And don't talk to me about Apple's Airport
Extreme. ISPs want (once the volume of IETF IPv6-related drafts has settled
down) for every router at Wal-mart to include IPv6 support. If they start
right now and presume that home gateways/routers are replaced every 3 to 5
years, it will be several years before they've covered even 50% of the
homes.
Frank
-----Original Message-----
From: Leo Bicknell [mailto:bicknell@ufp.org]
Sent: Monday, April 19, 2010 9:31 AM
To: nanog@nanog.org
Subject: Re: Rate of growth on IPv6 not fast enough?
In a message written on Sun, Apr 18, 2010 at 10:22:25PM -0700, joel jaeggli
wrote:
> Just because the curve doesn't look steep enough now doesn't mean it
> won't in two years. Human behavior is hard to model and panic hasn't set
> in yet.
There is also an aspect of this transition I don't think we've seen
before (in networking). A large percentage of end users are on
technologies (cable modem, dsl, even dial up) who's configuration
is entirely driven out of a provisioning database.
Once the backbone is rolled out, the nameservers, dhcp, and
configuration servers dual-stacked many ISP's could enable IPv6 for
all of their customers overnight with only a few keystrokes. Now
they won't literally do it that way to save their support folks,
but if the need arises they will be able to push the button quite
quickly.
I suspect the middle part of this S curve is going to be much, much
steeper than anyone is predicting right now.
--
Leo Bicknell - bicknell@ufp.org - CCIE 3440
PGP keys at http://www.ufp.org/~bicknell/
