[124098] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: IP4 Space
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Owen DeLong)
Tue Mar 23 15:15:05 2010
From: Owen DeLong <owen@delong.com>
In-Reply-To: <75cb24521003231040m6006b254y4c4043de8540e1d3@mail.gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 23 Mar 2010 12:10:36 -0700
To: Christopher Morrow <morrowc.lists@gmail.com>
Cc: NANOG list <nanog@nanog.org>
Errors-To: nanog-bounces+nanog.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@nanog.org
On Mar 23, 2010, at 10:40 AM, Christopher Morrow wrote:
> On Tue, Mar 23, 2010 at 10:27 AM, Owen DeLong <owen@delong.com> wrote:
>=20
>> I think that the additive nature of the IPv6/IPv4 routing tables =
will be the
>> driving factor for deprecation of IPv4 pretty quickly once IPv6 =
starts to
>> reach critical mass. The problem is that we are so early on the IPv6
>> adoption curve right now that nobody believes IPv6 will become
>> ubiquitous fast enough to be relevant.
>=20
> it seems to me that we'll have widespread ipv4 for +10 years at least,
> potentially there will be enough ipv4 alive in 20 years to still
> consider it 'widespread'. I also think we'll see more v4 routes
> (longer prefixes) show up in the first 10yrs, before it gets better :(
>=20
I think the pressure to start deprecating IPv4 will start in =
approximately
11-12 years...
Now =3D T0
T+3 years -- IPv4 runs out - Completely, not just IANA or RIRs, but, =
ISPs, too.
T+8 years -- IPv6 nears ubiquity at least on the public internet
T+11 years -- Economic pressures begin to drive the deprecation of IPv4.
> I could be wrong, I hope I am, but...
>=20
>> I think that IPv6 deployment is already showing signs of =
acceleration.
>> I think that it will lurch forward suddenly shortly after (~6-12 =
months)
>> IPv4 finally hits the runout wall in a couple of years.
>=20
> I agree that v6 deployments seem to be getting
> better/faster/stronger... I think that's good news, but we'll still be
> paying the v4 piper for a while.
>=20
Yep. I completely agree.
Owen
