[124095] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: IP4 Space
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Owen DeLong)
Tue Mar 23 13:29:55 2010
From: Owen DeLong <owen@delong.com>
In-Reply-To: <3c3e3fca1003230517s1454dfb6vc7b72e85fe431f52@mail.gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 23 Mar 2010 10:27:53 -0700
To: William Herrin <bill@herrin.us>
Cc: NANOG list <nanog@nanog.org>
Errors-To: nanog-bounces+nanog.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@nanog.org
On Mar 23, 2010, at 5:17 AM, William Herrin wrote:
> On Tue, Mar 23, 2010 at 3:40 AM, Owen DeLong <owen@delong.com> wrote:
>> On Mar 22, 2010, at 10:27 PM, Mark Newton wrote:
>>> On 23/03/2010, at 3:43 PM, Owen DeLong wrote:
>>>> With the smaller routing table afforded by IPv6, this will be less =
expensive. As a result, I suspect there will be more IPv6 small =
multihomers.
>>>> That's generally a good thing.
>>>=20
>>> Puzzled: How does the IPv6 routing table get smaller?
>>>=20
>> Compared to IPv4? Because we don't do slow start, so, major =
providers won't be
>> advertising 50-5,000 prefixes for a single autonomous system.
>=20
> On the other hand, smaller ASes still announce the same number, the
> hardware resource consumption for an IPv6 route is at least double
> that of an IPv4 entry, RIR policy implies more bits for TE
> disaggregation than is often possible in IPv4 and dual-stack means
> that the IPv6 routing table is strictly additive to the IPv4 routing
> table for the foreseeable future. Your thesis has some weaknesses.
>=20
With 30,000 active AS right now, assuming an average of 2 instead of =
9.5,
even if we double the number of active AS every 5 years, we're still =
looking
at 10 years for the IPv6 routing table to catch up.
30,000 * 2 =3D 60,000 prefixes today
120,000 prefixes in 5 years (60,000 active AS)
240,000 prefixes in 10 years (120,000 active AS)
I think that the additive nature of the IPv6/IPv4 routing tables will =
be the
driving factor for deprecation of IPv4 pretty quickly once IPv6 starts =
to
reach critical mass. The problem is that we are so early on the IPv6
adoption curve right now that nobody believes IPv6 will become
ubiquitous fast enough to be relevant.
I think that IPv6 deployment is already showing signs of acceleration.
I think that it will lurch forward suddenly shortly after (~6-12 months)
IPv4 finally hits the runout wall in a couple of years.
Owen
