[3270] in java-interest
Re: Blackbird, JavaBASIC, JavaPascal
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Michael St. Hippolyte)
Sun Nov 5 18:25:27 1995
Date: Sun, 5 Nov 1995 16:48:55 -0500
To: java-interest@java.sun.com
From: mash@interport.net (Michael St. Hippolyte)
Cc: bc@futuretense.com, cs9h4kaj@swansea.ac.uk
As I follow this discussion, I am reminded of the parallel argument that
floated around at the time of the introduction of the IBM PC: could anyone
possibly compete with IBM, with its overwhelming dominance of the computer
industry? This argument was made for software as well as hardware, since
IBM was dominant in both categories.
Well, it didn't happen that way. It seems to be an almost ironclad rule of
business that market leaders don't traverse paradigm shifts, such as the
shift to mass-market computers in the early '80s. Why should the shift to
mass-market distributed computing be any different?
Despite what many people will tell you, it wasn't stupidity that stood in
IBM's way a decade ago. It was profitability. IBM's profit margins on its
traditional business were high and its risks were low. In the short run,
that is.
Fast forward a decade to the present. For me to create Blackbird
applications, I would have to shell out hundreds, perhaps thousands of
dollars to Microsoft for all the proprietary tools I would need. I could
only sell a finished application to companies who have shelled out
thousands, perhaps many thousands of dollars to Microsoft for the
proprietary infrastructure needed to deliver it. Microsoft regards me as a
revenue stream.
So what if I choose Java over Blackbird? Microsoft doesn't care. There are
plenty of other programmers out there who don't pay for their development
tools out of their own pockets. Nobody ever got fired for buying Microsoft.
Microsoft's profit margins are intact. In the short run, that is.
The programmers who choose Blackbird over Java do so to make their bosses
happy and to follow the path of least resistance in their corporate milieus,
while those who choose Java over Blackbird do so because they want to reach
as many customers as possible with an exciting new idea that they hope will
make them rich.
History repeats itself.
Michael
....................................
\ Michael St. Hippolyte `.
\ mash@interport.net `.
\ http://www.interport.net/~mash `.
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