[1442] in java-interest
Re: the future of Java
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (John Barton)
Sat Sep 2 13:38:57 1995
To: Glen.Perkins@NativeGuide.com (Glen C. Perkins)
Cc: java-interest@java.sun.com
In-Reply-To: Your message of Fri, 01 Sep 1995 12:30:00 +0700.
<v01510101ac6c745e8a9f@[192.0.2.1]>
Date: Sat, 02 Sep 1995 10:27:47 -0400
From: John Barton <jjb@watson.ibm.com>
Glen,
You wrote some stuff about java that makes sense, including:
>Java stands an excellent chance of establishing itself as the standard for
>web-based applications. This is a niche that is just about to be born (it's
>in labor ;-) ), it looks like a niche worth dominating. The web is
>growing explosively. Tons of money are pouring into it. Sites that are
>*alive* (using applets) are going to draw more traffic than the "magazine
>page" sites we're used to. More traffic means more money. More money means
>more companies wanting to hire people who know how to convert a website
>from dead to alive and to do it *fast*. They'll use the best tools they
>have at the time to accomplish the goal. The fact that Netscape is the
>dominant browser and will support Java is a huge headstart for Java.
Then you start to lose it:
>This is a niche that could well grow so big that it subsumes "standalone
>apps" in a future where everything is connected and nothing stands alone.
>If C++ is the standard for standalone apps, and Java becomes the standard
>for web apps, and the web app market grows explosively and begins to merge
>with the standalone market, it's more likely that Java will dominate the
>merger than C++. The point where the two equally powerful markets merge,
>each with its own powerful standard, is the time where technical
>superiority will matter.
Finally,
>Will it be easier for Java to do C++'s job or for C++ to do Java's job?
Huh? Hey, let's try this experiment. I'll hire 10 programmers,
give them hardhats and torches, and we'll build a skyscraper for you.
You go out and hire 10 ironworkers, give them java and you write me
a WWW app. But wait, does this make any sense? Nope. Neither does
trying to make java into (C++)++.
John.
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