[1428] in java-interest
re: the future of Java
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Glen C. Perkins)
Fri Sep 1 18:35:41 1995
Date: Fri, 1 Sep 95 12:30 WET DST
To: java-interest@java.sun.com
From: Glen.Perkins@NativeGuide.com (Glen C. Perkins)
Robert Stephen Rodgers <rsrodger@wam.umd.edu> wrote:
> If Java leaves the web and establishes itself as
> a real programming language, it will be trivial to take the web back.
> The opposite approach, being established on the web, well, just isn't going
> to help that much in establishing Java as a real programming language.
That ignores the lessons of marketing. In the world of computers, standards
are enormously important. Being the standard ("what everybody uses") is not
just one reason to use something, it's a shorthand way to refer to lots of
reasons that all come bundled together: because "everybody" uses it, it has
all the best tools, the best "free" resources on the net, the most sources
of help if (when) you need help, the greatest likelihood of being able to
hire programmers who already know it to develop it now and to maintain your
code in the future, the greatest chance that your programmers now will want
to use it because even if your company goes out of business, they know that
the time they spent getting more experience using this "standard" will be
valuable in getting another job, etc., etc.
Simply being technically better is seldom a powerful enough argument to
defeat the pile of arguments encapsulated in "yes, but this other one is
The Standard." Being technically better *can* overthrow a standard, it's
just not very *likely* to do so all by itself. Therefore, since becoming a
standard is important for Java, it's not a very good strategy for Java to
forget the web and try to go straight into the world of standalone apps to
do battle with C++.
A much better strategy is to notice that the "standard" varies by niche and
to make yourself a standard in a niche that's easier to take over than
"standalone application development." Notice that corporate MIS systems
tend to be programmed in Oracle, not C; corporate communications are often
developed in Lotus Notes, not C; CGI scripts are usually done in Perl, not
C, etc. C and C++ can be, and are occasionally, used for these purposes,
but usually they aren't. C is not the standard in these niches.
Java stands an excellent chance of establishing itself as the standard for
web-based applications. This is a niche that is just about to be born (it's
in labor ;-) ), it looks like a niche worth dominating. The web is
growing explosively. Tons of money are pouring into it. Sites that are
*alive* (using applets) are going to draw more traffic than the "magazine
page" sites we're used to. More traffic means more money. More money means
more companies wanting to hire people who know how to convert a website
from dead to alive and to do it *fast*. They'll use the best tools they
have at the time to accomplish the goal. The fact that Netscape is the
dominant browser and will support Java is a huge headstart for Java.
This is a niche that could well grow so big that it subsumes "standalone
apps" in a future where everything is connected and nothing stands alone.
If C++ is the standard for standalone apps, and Java becomes the standard
for web apps, and the web app market grows explosively and begins to merge
with the standalone market, it's more likely that Java will dominate the
merger than C++. The point where the two equally powerful markets merge,
each with its own powerful standard, is the time where technical
superiority will matter.
Will it be easier for Java to do C++'s job or for C++ to do Java's job?
Which one has the security features that are mandatory when your apps are
all connected to the outside world? Which has the greater ability to deal
with a world where the "platform" is not one OS running on one chip, but a
world full of different OS's all running on different chips, all linked
together? Which has the built-in ability to handle Japanese and Chinese
data with the same chars and Strings that it uses to handle English? The
Japanese software market is the second largest in the world already, and it
will be dwarfed by the combined Chinese markets in the next century.
I think Java is the clear choice. First, though, you have to use the
standards issue to your benefit rather than fighting it by focusing on
absolutely DOMINATING the web app niche. If Netscape and Java get enough
exciting "live" sites up and running soon enough, they might be able to
create an unstoppable spiral of "everyone seems to be using Java so I will,
too" that freezes competitors like Blackbird out. Microsoft could find
itself forced to incorporate a Java interpreter into their browser, too,
just because nobody would use it if they didn't. If Java can't grab and
maintain dominance of web apps--if Blackbird, for example, wipes it
out--there is no hope that it will someday dominate standalone apps.
__Glen__
Glen.Perkins@NativeGuide.com
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