[107209] in Cypherpunks
Re: FC: How Y2K doomsayers got it wrong
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Declan McCullagh)
Tue Jan 5 18:07:09 1999
Date: Tue, 05 Jan 1999 17:53:36 -0500
To: Anonymous <nobody@replay.com>, cypherpunks@cyberpass.net
From: Declan McCullagh <declan@well.com>
In-Reply-To: <199901052030.VAA27631@replay.com>
Reply-To: Declan McCullagh <declan@well.com>
Well, Anonymous is right in that I was one of the main reporters writing
about Y2K, but I always believed that it *could* be a catastrophe if
sufficient work was not done in time.
I am more optimistic about infrastructure now based on research and
interviews in the past few months. But I stand by my earlier articles.
-Declan
At 09:30 PM 1-5-99 +0100, Anonymous wrote:
>Declan McCullagh wrote:
>
>> I remember how early this year many Y2Kers were gleefully predicting
>> widespread panic by early 1999, combined with a nose-diving Dow Jones
>> industrial average and (get this) plummeting home values as the masses fled
>> cities.
>>
>> Well, it didn't happen.
>>
>> Asking for prognostications and replaying them is a good way to evaluate
>> the predictive abilities of doomsayers.
>>
>> -Declan
>
>Of course, Declan was one of the main reporters pushing the idea that
>Y2K would be a catastrophe. It's too bad he was foolish enough to take
>advice from Tim May, who has a notoriously bad record as a prognosticator
>(remember 1997's "Thanksgiving Surprise"?).
>
>It is good to see that he is reverting to a more reasonable position now.
>This should provide ample time for people to forget his earlier dalliance
>with extremist views.
>
