[107208] in Cypherpunks
Re: FC: How Y2K doomsayers got it wrong
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Jim Burnes - Denver)
Tue Jan 5 17:54:59 1999
Date: Tue, 5 Jan 1999 15:33:21 -0700 (MST)
From: Jim Burnes - Denver <jim.burnes@ssds.com>
To: cypherpunks@cyberpass.net
In-Reply-To: <199901052030.VAA27631@replay.com>
Reply-To: Jim Burnes - Denver <jim.burnes@ssds.com>
On Tue, 5 Jan 1999, Anonymous wrote:
> Date: Tue, 5 Jan 1999 21:30:00 +0100
> From: Anonymous <nobody@replay.com>
> To: cypherpunks@cyberpass.net
> Subject: Re: FC: How Y2K doomsayers got it wrong
>
> Declan McCullagh wrote:
>
> > I remember how early this year many Y2Kers were gleefully predicting
> > widespread panic by early 1999, combined with a nose-diving Dow Jones
> > industrial average and (get this) plummeting home values as the masses fled
> > cities.
> >
> > Well, it didn't happen.
> >
> > Asking for prognostications and replaying them is a good way to evaluate
> > the predictive abilities of doomsayers.
> >
> > -Declan
>
> Of course, Declan was one of the main reporters pushing the idea that
> Y2K would be a catastrophe. It's too bad he was foolish enough to take
> advice from Tim May, who has a notoriously bad record as a prognosticator
> (remember 1997's "Thanksgiving Surprise"?).
>
> It is good to see that he is reverting to a more reasonable position now.
> This should provide ample time for people to forget his earlier dalliance
> with extremist views.
>
I think Declan was correctly pointing out the rather serious
overstating of the problem so soon.
He was pointing to a specific class of doomsayers, not to everyone
that thinks Y2K may eventually create very serious problems.
I'm playing wait and see. I think a more serious date will be
in the April/June time frame. First IRS fiscal year 2000
processing. From what I hear, their systems are in a near
collapse state not even taking into account the Y2K problem.
After that the perception of Y2K as a serious problem should
generate near bank runs. Considering the "virtual" nature
of our banking system, one peek at the man behind the curtain
should be all the nation needs for financial chaos.
Jim
"Follow the yellow brick road!"
The Wizard of Oz.
