[2140] in peace2
No subject found in mail header
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Matt Connolly)
Thu Dec 19 15:09:09 2002
Message-ID: <4CCB3C0151BED511A27C080009FE5B8A267633@cambridge1.afsc.org>
From: Matt Connolly <MConnolly@afsc.org>
To: "'peace-announce@mit.edu'" <peace-announce@mit.edu>
Date: Thu, 19 Dec 2002 14:58:06 -0500
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain;
charset="iso-8859-1"
Last week, Congressman Capuano met with a group of Cambridge-area peace
activists. He said that he is all but certain that the war will begin next
month. This can come as a surprize to none, given headlines like todays
about the mobilization of additional US troops.
Capuano said to us that in his view very few people are as well situated to
influence the national debate as the universities in this area. I am
writing to share with you Capuano's analysis of the war, as well as his
opinion about how the peace movement can infleunce the course the war will
take and the likelihood of further American military action in the Middle
East beyond Iraq. As a member of the Democratic progressive caucus in the US
House, Capuano is as well-placed as any to give us insight into how peace
efforts are perceived from inside the Beltway looking north.
AFSC is a Quaker-based organization committed to the principles of peace and
non-violence. Please let usknow how you think we should structure a
co-ordinated response to the war that si coming. As the war is upon us, the
peace-community must coordiate its responses as much as possible. AFSC
encourages Boston-area campuses to reach out to other campuses, particualrly
in the five-college area of Amherst / Northampton.
Students themselves should lead the way towad peace because young people
have the most to lose if this war sets a precedent for further US military
action in the Middle East, including occupying Iraq or actions against
neighboring countries such as Syria. Already, Capuano said, it is very ahrd
to get out of the reserves. Capuano stressed that he is opposed to the
draft, but recently he was reviewing the conditions under which Congress is
likely to endorse a draft. He did not exclude the possibility of a draft in
the coming conflict. He said that the new draft would be of both men and
women, and added that he does not think young people realize how serious
this is.
We met with the Congressman last Friday morning, December 13, in his
Cambridge office. Capuano has supported the peace movement in Congress by
voting against the resolution allowing the Administration carte blanche
power to wage war on Iraq without consulting Congress. He differs from many
in the peace movement, however, in that he may support a war that has UN
backing, which he believes may materialize, athough he also expressed the
opinion that the US will purchase the votes of Russia and France with
concessions in petroleum resources, and that the Administration will wage
war even without UN backing.
Capuano expects the war to begin in mid to late January, to last three
weeks, and for Bush to emerge a hero.
The Congressman was emphatic that as soon as the war starts, he could
support no organization that did not feature "We Support Our Troops" as a
leading part of its message. He suggested that anyone who fails to feature
such a message will be discounted in the changed climate of initial military
action. The progressives in Congress may lay low and not criticize the war
once it starts, but begin to criticize the Administration once the shooting
stops and the Iraqi regime has collapsed.
The criticism will be that the US should get out of Iraq and begin to
rebuild it. To prepare the way for this criticism of the Administration,
Capuano suggested that the peace movement begin to publicize as much as
possible the failure of the US to rebuild Afghanistan, where in his words,
it's "easy enough to knock down mud huts" but now the US must rebuild or
replace them. The failure to rebuild in Afghanistan can be used as
precedent in the argument that the US must not fail to rebuild Iraq. To
rebuild Iraq means to let the Iraqis take control and not to occupy the
country, as well as to supply material aid. (Capuano notes that the
Administration plans to pay for any rebuilding with revenue from the sale of
Iraqi oil.)
Capuano believes that the Administration intends to occupy Iraq, but will
not characterize its intentions as such. Publicly the Administration will
announce an intention to leave Iraq and to rebuild it. The peace movement
in Capuano's view must then put the lie to the Administration's statements.
Capuano further believes that if pressure is not put on the Administration
to withdraw militarily , the Administration may feel entitled to use Iraq as
the stepping stone toward further military action in the region. That is -
US withdrawal from Iraq is the best guarantee against more US Middle East
wars.
AFSC solicits advice concerning how much credence to put in Capuano's
suggestions and analysis. Unlike the Democrats, we may not wish to lay low
once the shooting starts. In contrast to them, we may wish to be as vocal
as possible once the war starts that the war is wrong and must stop. Yet we
may wish to consider stronger emphasis of the "support our troops" theme as
well. This does not mean that we support the military action. It simply
means that we are no without compassion or concern for Americans who have
put themselves in harm's way. Our message can be that the best thing for
these men and women in the armed forces, is that they come home.
Whatever our message turns out to be, we must further consider how best to
make it. Is there room for a regional rally of all New England campuses?
How can the peace movement coordinate actions of the various campuses
across the region? When should such actions take place? Can a student-run
planning board be centrally constituted to bring together the student
leadership from all campuses in the region? Can students work closely with
community, religious and civic groups likewise opposed to this war?
Many will travel to DC for the Martin Luther King Day peace demonstration.
In the Boston area, the Answer Coalition is organizing buses for that rally.
Although there continues to be talk about a local event at that time as
well, to the best of my knowledge very little action local to Boston has
been planned.
We asked Capuano how best the peace movement, in his opinion, could have an
impact on national politics once the shooting starts. He said that the
peace movement is already having an impact and that considerable and growing
public disapproval of the war is recognized by many members of Congress.
Capuano credited the peace movement with the surprisingly large vote against
th resolution allowing Bush carte blanche power to wage war, and said the
progressive caucus saw its estimates for votes against the resolution more
than doubled when the vote was taken. He said the vote against the
resolution was much larger than it would have been in August.
Because Capuano is of the opinion (a) that the war will definitely come
(probably in mid to late January, no later than February), (b) that the war
will be short and effective in installing a new regime, and (c) that in its
initial stage the war will enjoy overwhelming public support, Capuano did
not disagree with our suggestion that the most effective timing of large
scale protest may be early Spring.
An early spring time frame for protest would potentially be advisable for
the following reasons. (1) Public support will have passed through the
initial flag-waving stage that any large scale military action can be
expected to precipitate. (2) If the war has installed a new regime, it is
time to argue that (a) the job is done and the soldiers should come home and
(b) no further military action in the region is justified nor can be
tolerated. (3) If the war has not accomplished its aims, then it would be
appropriate to argue that the war is a failure and should stop. (4) If the
war still has not begun, it will be important to turn out people to
consolidate morale since it is likely at that point that the war will not
start until late fall 2003, and we have to keep the peace movement alive.
We hope to hear from you on how best we can craft a response to the Bush
Administration's war that accurately reflects the overwhelming unpopularity
of that war in our region. We encourage students and faculty quickly to
organize across campuses into a genuinely regional movement. We would like
to be as helpful as possible in amplifying your peace efforts now, when the
pressure is on.
Sincerely,
Matt Connolly
AFSC Volunteer
Cambridge MA 617 661 6130.
