[65013] in Cypherpunks
Re: Imminent Death of the Internet, GIF at 11
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Perry E. Metzger)
Mon Sep 9 12:44:35 1996
To: Martin Minow <minow@apple.com>
Cc: cypherpunks@toad.com
In-Reply-To: Your message of "Sat, 07 Sep 1996 10:40:40 PDT."
<v03007802ae575f5ed09b@[17.219.103.73]>
Reply-To: perry@piermont.com
Date: Mon, 09 Sep 1996 12:14:26 -0400
From: "Perry E. Metzger" <perry@piermont.com>
Martin Minow writes:
> For several months (years?) Bob Metcalf has been predicting that
> the Internet will self-destruct from overload. His argument
> appears to follow one of Gordon Bell's maxims: "anyone can predict
> the future: all you need is semi-log paper and a ruler." As I
> understand it, Metcalf's argument is that network load (messages,
> packets) is growing exponentially, while network bandwidth (fiber
> capacity, switch performance) is growing linearly. At some point,
> these two curves cross -- and demand will exceed capacity.
Except for the following.
1) TCP backs off.
2) Capacity is growing exponentially.
Perry
