[44794] in Cypherpunks
Re: The "Future" Fallacy
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Perry E. Metzger)
Wed Dec 6 11:24:41 1995
To: tcmay@got.net (Timothy C. May)
Cc: cypherpunks@toad.com
In-Reply-To: Your message of "Wed, 06 Dec 1995 01:10:40 PST."
<acea8b9b110210048f27@[205.199.118.202]>
Reply-To: perry@piermont.com
Date: Wed, 06 Dec 1995 11:14:54 -0500
From: "Perry E. Metzger" <perry@piermont.com>
Duncan's comment was quite obvious. Any child old enough to use a
computer can already transmit coded messages that no government can
find easy to decipher. The "Future Fallacy" is the prediction of
things in the past.
Timothy C. May writes:
> >From: Duncan Frissell
> >Bill Gates (like Mister Newt before him) committed what I call the Future
> >Fallacy in "The Road Ahead." Page 106.
> >
> >"Soon any child old enough to use a computer will be able to transmit coded
> >messages that no government on earth will find easy to decipher."
> >...................................................
> >
> >Billg is an optimist.
> >What's wrong with this picture, Duncan?
>
> I found nothing wrong or incorrect with the quote Duncan attributed to Bill
> Gates (I haven't read Gates' book).
>
> I couldn't understand Duncan's koan, shrugged, and moved on.
