[117178] in Cypherpunks
IP: Startegic Assessment: The Internet
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Robert Hettinga)
Fri Aug 27 17:57:04 1999
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From: Robert Hettinga <rah@shipwright.com>
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marcella.ecarm.org id NAA19074
Prepared by Mr. Charles Swett
Assistant for Strategic Assessment
Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and
Low-Intensity Conflict
(Policy Planning)
Room 2B525, the Pentagon 703-693-5208 17 July 1995
Note: The views expressed in this document are those of the author
and do not necessarily
represent the policies or positions of the Department of Defense.
<http://www.clubs.psu.edu/stsih/pentagon.htm#Assessment>http://www.cl
ubs.psu.edu/stsih/pentagon.htm#Assessment<http://www.clubs.psu.edu/sts
ih/pentagon.htm#Assessment>
While there is already a great deal of political use of the Internet
domestically and internationally, there is likely to be a significant
increase in the scale and sophistication of such use in the coming years.
Due
to the differences in concentration of Internet use between different areas
of the world, the impact of the Internet in directly influencing public
opinion is likely to be heaviest in the U.S., less in other parts of the
developed world such as Europe, and still less in the undeveloped world.
Individual activists operating in less-developed countries, though, are
likely to bring the Internet with them in the form of laptop computers that
can access the Internet through any telephone line. Information brought into
those countries through the s mall numbers of Internet access points can be
spread locally through more traditional methods such as print, radio
broadcast, and word of mouth. The activists will also be able to use the
Internet to disseminate information to the rest of the world and to help
coordinate their activities.
The Internet is clearly a significant long term strategic threat to
authoritarian regimes, one that they will be unable to counter effectively.
News from the outside world brought by the Internet into nations subjugated
by such regimes will clash with the distorted versions provided by their
governments, eroding the credibility of their positions and encouraging
unrest. "Personal" contact between people living under such governments and
people living in the free world, conducted via e-mail, will also help
achieve
a more accurate understanding on both ends and further undermine
authoritarian controls. Information about violations of human rights and
other forms of oppression will be increasingly conveyed to the outside world
by the Internet, helping mobili ze external political forces on behalf of
the
oppressed. It is thought by some analysts that the concepts of "national
sovereignty" and "nation state" are becoming less relevant due to greatly
increased economic, political, and cultural linkages that cut across
national
boundaries. To the extent that this is tr ue, the Internet will play an
important role, since it is the medium through which an increasing volume of
these types of linkages will take place.
Intelligence
The Internet is a potentially lucrative source of intelligence useful to
DoD.
This intelligence can include:
•Reports on current events •Analytic assessments by politically astute
observers on or near the scene of those events, many of whom offer unique
insights •Information about the plans and operations of politically active
groups.
John Anderson's concept for using the Internet to provide early warning of
impending security threats has a great deal of merit. Internet message
traffic about developing situations tends to precede news and intelligence
reporting, since the individuals w ho originate that traffic are not
constrained by the resource limitations to which news and intelligence
organizations are subject. Those organizations must prioritize their
efforts,
focusing on what appears to be the most important items of the moment. I
ndividual observers overseas who have access to the Internet can write about
anything that interests them. It is likely that routine monitoring of
messages originating in other countries would help provide strategic warning
of developing security threats that would be of concern to the United
States.
At the same time, it should be noted that a great deal of the message
traffic
on the Internet is idle chit-chat with no intelligence value whatsoever, a
veritable "Tower of Babble." Monitoring of that traffic would need to be
supported by automated filter s that pass through for human analysis only
those messages that satisfy certain relevance criteria. It is also important
to note that the accuracy of much of the information on the Internet would
be
suspect: "Information and disinformation about breaking events are pretty
raw
on the Net. That's the point. You don't know what to think of any particular
bit of information, how to gauge its credibility... You never really know
how
to gauge the credibility of the nightly news or the morning paper,
either..."[Rheingold]
Thus new means of validating information received in this way would be
needed. Alteratively, news reports on the Internet could be used to cue
higher confidence means of U.S. intelligence collection, by alerting us to
potentially important factors and all owing us to orient and focus our
collection more precisely.
Beside being used to develop early warning of developing conflicts or the
beginnings of new global trends or "sea changes," the Internet can be used
at
the opposite end of the spectrum: to obtain pinpoint information about
specific matters of interest. Ne tworks of human sources with access to the
Internet could be developed in areas of security concern to the U.S., and
these sources could be oriented to seek specific needed information. If
constructed and managed correctly, such a system could be much mor e
responsive and efficient than the current complex, unwieldy intelligence
tasking and collection processes we must use. We might even consider
cultivating the capability to perform strategic reconnaissance "by modem."
This approach could never replace of ficial DoD intelligence collection
systems or services, but could be a useful adjunct.
The Internet can also serve counterintelligence purposes. For example, a
message posted recently in an Internet discussion group for left-wing
political activists repeated for their benefit an Associated Press article
about an upcoming U.S. Army Special O perations Command training exercise
directed at the (empty) St. Moritz Hotel in Miami Beach (see Appendix C).
If it became widely known that DoD were monitoring Internet traffic for
intelligence or counterintelligence purposes, individuals with personal
agendas or political purposes in mind, or who enjoy playing pranks, would
deliberately enter false or misleadin g messages. Our analysis function
would
need to account for this.
Support to Policy Making
Beyond intelligence, the insights and analyses of thoughtful overseas
observers such as educators, former politicians, local journalists and
officials of other governments could be very useful to U.S. policy making.
E-mail discussions about the likely con sequences of various policy
approaches to security problems could help improve the quality of U.S.
policy
making. A great deal of "brain power" exists on the Internet, and if it
could
be harnessed and channeled for productive purposes, it might be a usefu l
addition to DoD's informational and political assets. Any such use, of
course, would have to be protected by appropriate security measures.
Support to Civil Affairs Programs
The Internet has substantial value to the Civil Affairs community in helping
to establish contacts and closer working relationships with non-governmental
organizations. In pursuit of the goal of minimizing the U.S. government's
role in executing civil sec tor programs in favor of a stronger role by
non-military organizations, the Internet can be used to accelerate and
strengthen activities among all parties. In addition, a project is underway
to identify public online information bases accessible through t he Internet
that contain data useful to Civil Affairs programs. A substantial volume of
relevant information has been found.
Offensive Uses
Just as the U.S. could be vulnerable to disinformational e-mail, politically
active groups using the Internet could be vulnerable to deceptive messages
introduced by hostile persons or groups. Far-right groups and far-left
groups
tend to watch each other, and it is likely that "moles" will obtain access
to
the other camps' networks for the purpose of disrupting their operations.
This would tend to weaken the protection afforded by coding or encrypting
messages.
Increasingly, officials in national governments, foreign military officers,
business persons, and journalists, are obtaining access to the Internet and
establishing individual e-mail addresses. There is even a commercial service
that will shortly offer ac cess to an online database of the names,
organizational titles, phone/fax numbers, and Internet e-mail addresses of
virtually all government officials in all countries. Using this information,
it would be possible to employ the Internet as an additional m edium for
Psychological Operations (Psyops) campaigns. E-mail conveying the U.S.
perspective on issues and events could be efficiently and rapidly
disseminated to a very wide audience.
The U.S. might be able to employ the Internet offensively to help achieve
unconventional warfare objectives. Information could be transmitted over the
Internet to sympathetic groups operating in areas of concern that allows
them
to conduct operations them selves that we might otherwise have to send our
own special forces to accomplish. Although such undertakings would have
their
own kinds of risks, they would have the benefit of reducing the physical
risks to our special forces personnel, and limiting the direct political
involvement of the United States since the actions we desire would be
carried
out by indigenous groups.
Roles During Conflict
Even if the actual presence of the Internet in the location of a conflict is
very limited, the widespread access to Internet available in the U.S. and
other parts of the developed world will provide a medium over which
political
debate and activism relate d to that conflict can occur. Thus the Internet
can indirectly play an important role in the way the world deals with a
conflict, without having substantial physical presence within the conflict.
The Internet can play an important positive role during fut ure
international
crises and conflicts. In the chaotic conditions usually present in such
situations, normal government and commercial reporting channels are often
unreliable or unavailable, and the Internet might be one of the few means of
communication present. Some of its uses might include:
•Getting news out of the region and into the U.S. government •Getting
information from the U.S. and other nations into the region •Cultivating
political and even operational support for the U.S. side and opposition to
the other side.
In order to use the Internet most productively for such purposes, it would
be
necessary for DoD to address it directly and explicitly as an integral
asset,
rather than as an uncontrollable element of the environment whose role is
determined by happenstanc e or as an afterthought. If viewed as a resource
and systematically integrated into our planning and operations, the Internet
can make some important contributions to conflict management and assuring
the
success of U.S. foreign policy.
Recommendations
NOTE: The recommendations listed below should be carried out only in full
compliance with the letter and the spirit of the law, and without violating
the privacy of American citizens
•All DoD professional and support personnel should have an Internet e-mail
address with convenient access and a user-friendly interface.
•Individual analysts in DoD intelligence agencies should routinely monitor
Internet traffic (that is readily accessible to the general public) related
to their responsibilities. Agencies should establish high volume internal
outlets to provide them with this traffic, subject to appropriate relevance
filters.
•DoD intelligence agencies should investigate the role of the Internet in
helping coordinate the operations of political activists and paramilitary
groups in regions of interest
•An early warning capability should be established that uses Internet
messages to help identify developing situations overseas that could lead to
security threats •Officials planning and conducting DoD civil affairs
programs overseas should be informed about any activists working in their
vicinity who use the Internet •The OSD Public Affairs site on the Internet
should accept feedback from callers and should provide responses, using the
full potential of the Internet for supporting DoD public affairs programs.
Although it would be impractical to provide an individua l reply to every
incoming e-mail message, statistical profiles of opinions conveyed by large
volumes of messages could be used to compose periodic DoD bulletins
addressing them in general terms. This would help provide a semi-interactive
environment within our resource limitations.
•Subject to appropriate security and propriety precautions, DoD officials
involved in formulating DoD policy should be given access to the advice and
thinking of people on the Internet with relevant expertise.
•DoD should continue to monitor the evolution of the Internet and its role
in
national security.
•The Internet should be incorporated in our Psyops planning as an additional
medium.
•Means of employing the Internet offensively in support of our
unconventional
warfare objectives should be explored.
•Senior DoD officials should be kept aware of domestic U.S. political
developments on the Internet that relate to DoD interests.
Prepared by Mr. Charles Swett
OASD(SO/LIC) Policy Planning
x35208
17 April 1995 >>
<http://www.clubs.psu.edu/stsih/pentagon.htm#Assessment>http://www.clu
bs.psu.edu/stsih/pentagon.htm#Assessment
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Robert A. Hettinga <mailto: rah@ibuc.com>
The Internet Bearer Underwriting Corporation <http://www.ibuc.com/>
44 Farquhar Street, Boston, MA 02131 USA
"... however it may deserve respect for its usefulness and antiquity,
[predicting the end of the world] has not been found agreeable to
experience." -- Edward Gibbon, 'Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire'
