[2339] in Commercialization & Privatization of the Internet
Internet growth
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (John Quarterman)
Sun Feb 16 17:04:19 1992
Date: Sun, 16 Feb 92 15:27:18 CST
From: jsq@tic.com (John Quarterman)
To: daveh@csn.org
In-Reply-To: <199202141854.AA28402@teal.csn.org>
Cc: com-priv@psi.com, mids@tic.com
In article <199202141854.AA28402@teal.csn.org> you write:
...
> NSF's Steve Goldstein gave an excellent summary of the Internet's past,
> present and future. His viewgraphs showed its exponential growth -
> literally exponential, as demonstrated in one of the charts. Some
> datapoints:
>
> Date Connected hosts
> 8/81 213
> 10/85 1,961
> 12/87 28,174
> 1/89 80,000
> 1/91 376,000
> 1/92 727,000
Dave,
Host figures for Europe and for the Internet worldwide are shown
in the appended PostScript graph. The data is used with permission
for general redistribution. The graph includes attributions for the
sources of the data and of the graph. I would like to ask anyone
who uses the graph to keep those attributions in it. A version
on a linear scale is also available.
If you're interested in history, there is a similar graph in the book,
The Matrix, based on numbers of connected networks, as recorded
by BBN. It shows the same basic characteristics as the worldwide
host figures: exponential growth (doubling every year), starting
about 1986.
I know discussions about when that exponential rate of growth
has to break have been done to death in other forums. But most
of what I saw was before the European figures shown here became
available. They show a factor of four, not two, for 1991.
If that keeps up, the worldwide growth factor is low, not high.
Any takers on whether the current European spurt of growth is
an anomaly, or not, and what the real worldwide factor should be?
Some speculations on the effects of these growth figures, both
historically and in the future, appear in Matrix News, vol. 1, no. 2.
Some extrapolations to host figures are included, and vol. 1, no. 3
has a user size estimate from Craig Partridge based on the Jan 91
host count. The above host figures appear in the current issue.
Data for the Matrix at large (the other major worldwide networks,
in addition to the Internet) will appear in an upcoming issue.
Thanks,
John
John S. Quarterman
Matrix Information and Directory Services, Inc. (MIDS)
jsq@tic.com
+1-512-329-1087
fax: +1-512-327-1274
Building 2 Suite 300
1120 South Capitol of Texas Highway
Austin, TX 78746
U.S.A.
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