[98982] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: "2M today, 10M with no change in technology"? An informal survey.
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (David Conrad)
Mon Aug 27 21:09:42 2007
In-Reply-To: <Pine.LNX.4.61.0708272039180.30395@soloth.lewis.org>
Cc: nanog list <nanog@merit.edu>
From: David Conrad <drc@virtualized.org>
Date: Mon, 27 Aug 2007 18:08:49 -0700
To: Jon Lewis <jlewis@lewis.org>
Errors-To: owner-nanog@merit.edu
Jon,
On Aug 27, 2007, at 5:50 PM, Jon Lewis wrote:
>>> Any reasonably valid way of predicting when we'll hit 244,000
>>> routes in the default-free zone?
>> Real Soon Now?
According to Geoff, the BGP table is growing at around 3500 routes
per month, so we're looking at blowing out MSFC2s in about 3 months
if nothing changes.
And here I was, wondering about 2M routes...
> Unlike Y2K, the end of the useful service life up the Sup2 can
> easily be pushed further away in time.
"Easy" is, I suspect, in the mind of the route injector.
> There's really only 151129 routes you need to have "full routes".
> Forcing just these top 4 slobs to aggregate reduces your global
> table by 3619 routes.
~1 more month.
> Forcing the top 30 to aggregate frees up 15809 routes.
~3 more months.
> Of course there are other reasons to upgrade (better CPU, MPLS,
> IPv6, etc.), but if you can't upgrade, there are alternatives to
> stretch the old hardware.
For a few more months. What are upgrade cycles like again? How
common are the MSFC2s?
> It's not like it hasn't been done before.
Yep. The nice thing about repeating history is you have a good idea
of the whinage that you're in store for.
"CIDR Wars 2.0: This Time It's For Real! No, really. We mean it
this time."
:-)
Regards,
-drc
"I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused ..." -- Elvis Costello
