[97886] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: peter lothberg's mother slashdotted
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Robert Blayzor)
Fri Jul 13 07:05:53 2007
Date: Fri, 13 Jul 2007 07:04:56 -0400
From: Robert Blayzor <rblayzor@inoc.net>
To: nanog@nanog.org
In-Reply-To: <4696EF15.6020704@utc.edu>
Errors-To: owner-nanog@merit.edu
Jeff Kell wrote:
> If we continue along orders of magnitude, sure it's foreseeable.
>
> * 30 years ago, 300 baud was the bomb :-)
> * 3000 baud was roughly 2400bps days
> * 30000 baud gets us to ~28.8k
> * 300000 baud was about 2 ISDN lines (2x128k)
> * 3000000 baud is about typical cable these days (3m)
Well using your logic, then it's partially true that 40G is not any time
soon. Especially considering fiber is in less than 1% of homes. Lets
not forget that all of the above has been established on existing
facilities that have been in homes for 30-50+ years.
You say 30 years ago, and lets roughly estimate it's four to five years
between those technologies above, which gets us to today. It's going to
take at least another 5 years to consider FTTP "the norm" at say 30M,
maybe sooner with technologies with DOCSIS 2.0, etc. So...
30M Is Today +4/5 years
300M Is Today +8/10 years
3G Is Today +12/15 years
30G Is Today +16/20 years
If it's sooner all the better. Keeping in mind, installations like
Verizon FiOS don't run dedicated strands of glass to each home, they use
PON. So achieving anywhere near 40G on even the existing stuff they're
running into homes may not be possible for quite some time...
PS -- baud != bps
-Robert
