[94839] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: death of the net predicted by deloitte -- film at 11
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Stephen Sprunk)
Sun Feb 11 21:02:39 2007
From: "Stephen Sprunk" <stephen@sprunk.org>
To: "Geo." <geoincidents@nls.net>,
"North American Noise and Off-topic Gripes" <nanog@merit.edu>
Date: Sun, 11 Feb 2007 19:40:08 -0600
Errors-To: owner-nanog@merit.edu
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Thus spake "Geo." <geoincidents@nls.net>
> TIVO type setup with a massive archive of every show so you can not
> only watch this weeks episode but you can tivo download any show
> from the last 6 years worth of your favorite series is one heck of a
> draw over cable or satellite and might be enough to motivate the
> public
> to move to a different service. A better tivo than tivo.
As I've pointed out before, the pirates _are already doing this_, and it
works. Unfortunately, it remains to be seen if the Net will survive
1000x as many users. P2P have interesting scaling characteristics;
1000x as many users doesn't mean 1000x as many bit-miles. In fact,
higher densities may reduce the bit-miles -- and network operators pay
for bit-miles, not bits.
> As for making money, just stick a commercial on the front of every
> download.
BitTorrent, Inc. is working deals to distribute DRMed files freely over
P2P and individual users would just purchase a license to view the files
after the download is complete. (Of course, I assume this'll be cracked
relatively soon, but like with iTMS, most people will pay anyways)
The alternative is free viewing with more product placement, inline ads
at the top/bottom of the screen, or a little header with "this program
is brought to you commercial-free by <sponsor>", like I've seen on
soccer (football to non-US folks) games. Commercials in their present
form are dying fast with the advent of DVRs, and on-demand shows will
destroy them -- though that won't stop some dinosaurs from trying it.
S
Stephen Sprunk "God does not play dice." --Albert Einstein
CCIE #3723 "God is an inveterate gambler, and He throws the
K5SSS dice at every possible opportunity." --Stephen Hawking
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