[94070] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: Network end users to pull down 2 gigabytes a day, continuously?
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Gian Constantine)
Mon Jan 8 21:08:33 2007
In-Reply-To: <03235919BBDE634289BB6A0758A20B36FD964B@NT-SJCA-0751.brcm.ad.broadcom.com>
Cc: nanog@merit.edu
From: Gian Constantine <constantinegi@corp.earthlink.net>
Date: Mon, 8 Jan 2007 21:07:25 -0500
To: Bora Akyol <bora@broadcom.com>
Errors-To: owner-nanog@merit.edu
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There may have been a disconnect on my part, or at least, a failure
to disclose my position. I am looking at things from a provider
standpoint, whether as an ISP or a strict video service provider.
I agree with you. From a consumer standpoint, a trickle or off-peak
download model is the ideal low-impact solution to content delivery.
And absolutely, a 500GB drive would almost be overkill on space for
disposable content encoded in H.264. Excellent SD (480i) content can
be achieved at ~1200 to 1500kbps, resulting in about a 1GB file for a
90 minute title. HD is almost out of the question for internet
download, given good 720p at ~5500kbps, resulting in a 30GB file for
a 90 minute title.
Service providers wishing to provide this service to their customers
may see some success where they control the access medium (copper
loop, coax, FTTH). Offering such a service to customers outside of
this scope would prove very expensive, and likely, would never see a
return on the investment without extensive peering arrangements. Even
then, distribution rights would be very difficult to attain without
very deep pockets and crippling revenue sharing. The studios really
dislike the idea of transmission outside of a closed network. Don't
forget. Even the titles you mentioned are still owned by very large
companies interested in squeezing every possible dime from their
assets. They would not be cheap to acquire.
Further, torrent-like distribution is a long long way away from sign
off by the content providers. They see torrents as the number one
tool of content piracy. This is a major reason I see the discussion
of tripping upstream usage limits through content distribution as moot.
I am with you on the vision of massive content libraries at the
fingertips of all, but I see many roadblocks in the way. And, almost
none of them are technical in nature.
Gian Anthony Constantine
Senior Network Design Engineer
Earthlink, Inc.
Office: 404-748-6207
Cell: 404-808-4651
Internal Ext: x22007
constantinegi@corp.earthlink.net
On Jan 8, 2007, at 7:51 PM, Bora Akyol wrote:
>
> Please see my comments inline:
>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Gian Constantine [mailto:constantinegi@corp.earthlink.net]
>> Sent: Monday, January 08, 2007 4:27 PM
>> To: Bora Akyol
>> Cc: nanog@merit.edu
>> Subject: Re: Network end users to pull down 2 gigabytes a
>> day, continuously?
>>
> <snip>
>>
>> I would also argue storage and distribution costs are not
>> asymptotically zero with scale. Well designed SANs are not
>> cheap. Well designed distribution systems are not cheap.
>> While price does decrease when scaled upwards, the cost of
>> such an operation remains hefty, and increases with additions
>> to the offered content library and a swelling of demand for
>> this content. I believe the graph becomes neither asymptotic,
>> nor anywhere near zero.
>
> To the end user, there is no cost to downloading videos when they are
> sleeping.
> I would argue that other than sports (and some news) events, there is
> pretty much no content that
> needs to be real time. What the downloading (possibly 24x7) does is to
> stress the ISP network to its max since the assumptions of statistical
> multiplexing
> goes out the window. Think of a Tivo that downloads content off the
> Internet
> 24x7.
>
> The user is still paying for only what they pay each month, and
> this is
> "network neutrality 2.0" all over again.
>
>
>> You are correct on the long tail nature of music. But music
>> is not consumed in a similar manner as TV and movies.
>> Television and movies involve a little more commitment and
>> attention. Music is more for the moment and the mood. There
>> is an immediacy with music consumption. Movies and television
>> require a slight degree more patience from the consumer. The
>> freshness (debatable :-) ) of new release movies and TV can
>> often command the required patience from the consumer. Older
>> content rarely has the same pull.
>
> I would argue against your distinction between visual and auditory
> content.
> There is a lot of content out there that a lot of people watch and the
> content
> is 20-40+ years old. Think Brady Bunch, Bonanza, or archived games
> from
> NFL,
> MLB etc. What about Smurfs (for those of us with kids)?
>
> This is only the beginning.
>
> If I can get a 500GB box and download MP4 content, that's a lot of
> essentially free storage.
>
> Coming back to NANOG content, I think video (not streamed but multi-
> path
> distributed video) is going to bring the networks down not by sheer
> bandwidth alone but by challenging the assumptions behind the
> engineering of the network. I don't think you need huge SANs per se to
> store the content either, since it is multi-source/multi-sink, the
> reliability is built-in.
>
> The SPs like Verizon & ATT moving fiber to the home hoping to get
> in on
> the "value add" action are in for an awakening IMHO.
>
> Regards
>
> Bora
> ps. I apologize for the tone of my previous email. That sounded
> grumpier
> than I usually am.
>
>
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<HTML><BODY style=3D"word-wrap: break-word; -khtml-nbsp-mode: space; =
-khtml-line-break: after-white-space; ">There may have been a disconnect =
on my part, or at least, a failure to disclose my position. I am looking =
at things from a provider standpoint, whether as an ISP or a strict =
video service provider.<DIV><BR =
class=3D"khtml-block-placeholder"></DIV><DIV>I agree with you. =46rom a =
consumer standpoint, a trickle or off-peak download model is the ideal =
low-impact solution to content delivery. And absolutely, a 500GB drive =
would almost be overkill on space for disposable content encoded in =
H.264. Excellent SD (480i) content can be achieved at ~1200 to 1500kbps, =
resulting in about a 1GB file for a 90 minute title. HD is almost out of =
the question for internet download, given good 720p at ~5500kbps, =
resulting in a 30GB file for a 90 minute title.</DIV><DIV><BR =
class=3D"khtml-block-placeholder"></DIV><DIV>Service providers wishing =
to provide this service to their customers may see some success where =
they control the access medium (copper loop, coax, FTTH). Offering such =
a service to customers outside of this scope would prove very expensive, =
and likely, would never see a return on the investment without extensive =
peering arrangements. Even then, distribution rights would be very =
difficult to attain without very deep pockets and crippling revenue =
sharing. The studios really dislike the idea of transmission outside of =
a closed network. Don't forget. Even the titles you mentioned are still =
owned by very large companies interested in squeezing every possible =
dime from their assets. They would not be cheap to =
acquire.</DIV><DIV><BR =
class=3D"khtml-block-placeholder"></DIV><DIV>Further, torrent-like =
distribution is a long long way away from sign off by the content =
providers. They see torrents as the number one tool of content piracy. =
This is a major reason I see the discussion of tripping upstream usage =
limits through content distribution as moot.</DIV><DIV><BR =
class=3D"khtml-block-placeholder"></DIV><DIV>I am with you on the vision =
of massive content libraries at the fingertips of all, but I see many =
roadblocks in the way. And, almost none of them are technical in =
nature.</DIV><DIV><BR><DIV> <SPAN class=3D"Apple-style-span" =
style=3D"border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px 0px; color: =
rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: =
normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: =
normal; line-height: normal; text-align: auto; =
-khtml-text-decorations-in-effect: none; text-indent: 0px; =
-apple-text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; orphans: 2; =
white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; "><SPAN =
class=3D"Apple-style-span" style=3D"border-collapse: separate; =
border-spacing: 0px 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; =
font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: =
normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; text-align: auto; =
-khtml-text-decorations-in-effect: none; text-indent: 0px; =
-apple-text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; orphans: 2; =
white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; "><DIV>Gian Anthony =
Constantine</DIV><DIV>Senior Network Design =
Engineer</DIV><DIV>Earthlink, Inc.</DIV><DIV>Office: =
404-748-6207</DIV><DIV>Cell: 404-808-4651</DIV><DIV>Internal Ext: =
x22007</DIV><DIV><A =
href=3D"mailto:constantinegi@corp.earthlink.net">constantinegi@corp.earthl=
ink.net</A></DIV><DIV><BR class=3D"khtml-block-placeholder"></DIV><BR =
class=3D"Apple-interchange-newline"></SPAN></SPAN> =
</DIV><BR><DIV><DIV>On Jan 8, 2007, at 7:51 PM, Bora Akyol =
wrote:</DIV><BR class=3D"Apple-interchange-newline"><BLOCKQUOTE =
type=3D"cite"><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; =
margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; min-height: 14px; "><BR></DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; ">Please see my comments inline:</DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; min-height: 14px; "><BR></DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE =
type=3D"cite"><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; =
margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">-----Original =
Message-----</DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; =
margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">From: Gian Constantine [<A =
href=3D"mailto:constantinegi@corp.earthlink.net">mailto:constantinegi@corp=
.earthlink.net</A>]<SPAN =
class=3D"Apple-converted-space">=A0</SPAN></DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">Sent: =
Monday, January 08, 2007 4:27 PM</DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; =
margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">To: Bora =
Akyol</DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; =
margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">Cc: <A =
href=3D"mailto:nanog@merit.edu">nanog@merit.edu</A></DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; ">Subject: Re: Network end users to pull down 2 =
gigabytes a<SPAN class=3D"Apple-converted-space">=A0</SPAN></DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; ">day, continuously?</DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; =
min-height: 14px; "><BR></DIV> </BLOCKQUOTE><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; =
"><snip></DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE type=3D"cite"><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; =
min-height: 14px; "><BR></DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; =
margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">I would also =
argue storage and distribution costs are not<SPAN =
class=3D"Apple-converted-space">=A0</SPAN></DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; =
">asymptotically zero with scale. Well designed SANs are not<SPAN =
class=3D"Apple-converted-space">=A0</SPAN></DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">cheap. =
Well designed distribution systems are not cheap.<SPAN =
class=3D"Apple-converted-space">=A0</SPAN></DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">While =
price does decrease when scaled upwards, the cost of<SPAN =
class=3D"Apple-converted-space">=A0</SPAN></DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">such an =
operation remains hefty, and increases with additions<SPAN =
class=3D"Apple-converted-space">=A0</SPAN></DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">to the =
offered content library and a swelling of demand for<SPAN =
class=3D"Apple-converted-space">=A0</SPAN></DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">this =
content. I believe the graph becomes neither asymptotic,<SPAN =
class=3D"Apple-converted-space">=A0</SPAN></DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">nor =
anywhere near zero.</DIV> </BLOCKQUOTE><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; =
margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; min-height: =
14px; "><BR></DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; =
margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">To the end user, there is no =
cost to downloading videos when they are</DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; =
">sleeping.</DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; =
margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">I would argue that other than =
sports (and some news) events, there is</DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">pretty =
much no content that</DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: =
0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">needs to be real time. What =
the downloading (possibly 24x7) does is to<SPAN =
class=3D"Apple-converted-space">=A0</SPAN></DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">stress =
the ISP network to its max since the assumptions of =
statistical</DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; =
margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">multiplexing</DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; ">goes out the window. Think of a Tivo that downloads =
content off the</DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; =
margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">Internet</DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; ">24x7.<SPAN =
class=3D"Apple-converted-space">=A0</SPAN></DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; =
min-height: 14px; "><BR></DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; =
margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">The user is =
still paying for only what they pay each month, and this is</DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; ">"network neutrality 2.0" all over again.</DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; min-height: 14px; "><BR></DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; =
min-height: 14px; "><BR></DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE type=3D"cite"><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; ">You are correct on the long tail nature of music. =
But music<SPAN class=3D"Apple-converted-space">=A0</SPAN></DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; ">is not consumed in a similar manner as TV and =
movies.<SPAN class=3D"Apple-converted-space">=A0</SPAN></DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; ">Television and movies involve a little more =
commitment and<SPAN class=3D"Apple-converted-space">=A0</SPAN></DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; ">attention. Music is more for the moment and the =
mood. There<SPAN class=3D"Apple-converted-space">=A0</SPAN></DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; ">is an immediacy with music consumption. Movies and =
television<SPAN class=3D"Apple-converted-space">=A0</SPAN></DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; ">require a slight degree more patience from the =
consumer. The<SPAN class=3D"Apple-converted-space">=A0</SPAN></DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; ">freshness (debatable :-) ) of new release movies and =
TV can<SPAN class=3D"Apple-converted-space">=A0</SPAN></DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; ">often command the required patience from the =
consumer. Older<SPAN class=3D"Apple-converted-space">=A0</SPAN></DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; ">content rarely has the same pull.</DIV> =
</BLOCKQUOTE><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; =
margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; min-height: 14px; "><BR></DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; ">I would argue against your distinction between =
visual and auditory</DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: =
0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">content.</DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; ">There is a lot of content out there that a lot of =
people watch and the</DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: =
0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">content</DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; ">is 20-40+ years old. Think Brady Bunch, Bonanza, or =
archived games from</DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: =
0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">NFL,</DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; ">MLB etc. What about Smurfs (for those of us with =
kids)?</DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; =
margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; min-height: 14px; "><BR></DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; ">This is only the beginning.</DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; min-height: 14px; "><BR></DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">If I can =
get a 500GB box and download MP4 content, that's a lot of</DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; ">essentially free storage.</DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; min-height: 14px; "><BR></DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">Coming =
back to NANOG content, I think video (not streamed but =
multi-path</DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; =
margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">distributed video) is going to =
bring the networks down not by sheer</DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; =
margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">bandwidth =
alone but by challenging the assumptions behind the</DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; ">engineering of the network. I don't think you need =
huge SANs per se to</DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: =
0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">store the content either, =
since it is multi-source/multi-sink, the</DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; =
">reliability is built-in.</DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; =
margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; min-height: =
14px; "><BR></DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; =
margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">The SPs like Verizon & ATT =
moving fiber to the home hoping to get in on</DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; ">the "value add" action are in for an awakening =
IMHO.</DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; =
margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; min-height: 14px; "><BR></DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; ">Regards</DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; =
margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; min-height: =
14px; "><BR></DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; =
margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">Bora</DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; ">ps. I apologize for the tone of my previous email. =
That sounded grumpier</DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: =
0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">than I usually =
am.</DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; =
margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; min-height: 14px; "><BR></DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; min-height: 14px; "><BR></DIV> =
</BLOCKQUOTE></DIV><BR></DIV></BODY></HTML>=
--Apple-Mail-2-1022685064--
