[94067] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: Network end users to pull down 2 gigabytes a day, continuously?
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Gian Constantine)
Mon Jan 8 19:28:08 2007
In-Reply-To: <03235919BBDE634289BB6A0758A20B36FD95F6@NT-SJCA-0751.brcm.ad.broadcom.com>
Cc: nanog@merit.edu
From: Gian Constantine <constantinegi@corp.earthlink.net>
Date: Mon, 8 Jan 2007 19:27:08 -0500
To: Bora Akyol <bora@broadcom.com>
Errors-To: owner-nanog@merit.edu
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Well, yes. My view on this subject is U.S.-centric. In fairness to
me, this is NANOG, not AFNOG or EuroNOG or SANOG.
I would also argue storage and distribution costs are not
asymptotically zero with scale. Well designed SANs are not cheap.
Well designed distribution systems are not cheap. While price does
decrease when scaled upwards, the cost of such an operation remains
hefty, and increases with additions to the offered content library
and a swelling of demand for this content. I believe the graph
becomes neither asymptotic, nor anywhere near zero.
You are correct on the long tail nature of music. But music is not
consumed in a similar manner as TV and movies. Television and movies
involve a little more commitment and attention. Music is more for the
moment and the mood. There is an immediacy with music consumption.
Movies and television require a slight degree more patience from the
consumer. The freshness (debatable :-) ) of new release movies and TV
can often command the required patience from the consumer. Older
content rarely has the same pull.
I agree there is a market for ethnic and niche content, but it is not
the broad market many companies look for. The investment becomes much
more of a gamble than marketing the latest and greatest (again
debatable :-) ) to the larger market of...well...everyone.
Gian Anthony Constantine
Senior Network Design Engineer
Earthlink, Inc.
Office: 404-748-6207
Cell: 404-808-4651
Internal Ext: x22007
constantinegi@corp.earthlink.net
On Jan 8, 2007, at 5:15 PM, Bora Akyol wrote:
>
>
>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: owner-nanog@merit.edu [mailto:owner-nanog@merit.edu] On
>> Behalf Of Gian Constantine
>> Sent: Sunday, January 07, 2007 7:18 PM
>> To: nanog@merit.edu
>> Subject: Re: Network end users to pull down 2 gigabytes a
>> day, continuously?
>>
> <snip>
>> In entertainment, content is king. More specifically, new
>> release content is king. While internet distribution may help
>> breathe life into the long tail market, it is hard to imagine
>> any major shift from existing distribution methods. People
>> simply like the latest TV shows and the latest movies.
>
> What's new to you is very different from what's new to me?
>
> I am very happy watching 1 year old episodes of Top Gear whereas
> if you are located in the UK, you may consider this as old news.
>
> The story here is about the cost of storing the video content (which
> is asymptotically zero) and the cost of distributing it (which is also
> asymptotically
> approaching zero, despite the ire of the SPs).
>
>
>> So, this leaves us with little more than what is already
>> offered by the MSOs: linear TV and VoD. This is where things
>> become complex.
>>
>> The studios will never (not any time soon) allow for a
>> subscription based VoD on new content. They would instantly
>> be sued by Time Warner (HBO).
>
> This is a very US-centric view of the world. I am sure there are
> hundreds of
> TV stations from India, Turkey, Greece, etc that would love to put
> their
> content
> online and make money off the long tail.
>
>> I guess where I am going with all this is simply it is very
>> hard to make this work from a business and marketing side.
>> The network constraints are, likely, a minor issue for some
>> time to come. Interest is low in the public at large for
>> primary (or even major secondary) video service on the PC.
>>
>
> Again, your views are very US centric, and are mono-cultural.
>
> If you open your horizons, I think there is a world of content out
> there
> that the content owners would be happy to license and sell at < 10
> cents
> a pop.
> To them it is dead content, but it turns out that they are worth
> something to someone out there.
> This is what iTunes, and Rhapsody are doing with music. And the day of
> the video is coming.
>
> Bora
>
> -- Off to raise some venture funds now. (Just kidding ;)
>
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<HTML><BODY style=3D"word-wrap: break-word; -khtml-nbsp-mode: space; =
-khtml-line-break: after-white-space; ">Well, yes. My view on this =
subject is U.S.-centric. In fairness to me, this is NANOG, not AFNOG or =
EuroNOG or SANOG.<DIV><BR class=3D"khtml-block-placeholder"></DIV><DIV>I =
would also argue storage and distribution costs are not asymptotically =
zero with scale. Well designed SANs are not cheap. Well designed =
distribution systems are not cheap. While price does decrease when =
scaled upwards, the cost of such an operation remains hefty, and =
increases with additions to the offered content library and a swelling =
of demand for this content. I believe the graph becomes neither =
asymptotic, nor anywhere near zero.</DIV><DIV><BR =
class=3D"khtml-block-placeholder"></DIV><DIV>You are correct on the long =
tail nature of music. But music is not consumed in a similar manner as =
TV and movies. Television and movies involve a little more commitment =
and attention. Music is more for the moment and the mood. There is an =
immediacy with music consumption. Movies and television require a slight =
degree more patience from the consumer. The freshness (debatable :-) ) =
of new release movies and TV can often command the required patience =
from the consumer. Older content rarely has the same pull.</DIV><DIV><BR =
class=3D"khtml-block-placeholder"></DIV><DIV>I agree there is a market =
for ethnic and niche content, but it is not the broad market many =
companies look for. The investment becomes much more of a gamble than =
marketing the latest and greatest (again debatable :-) ) to the larger =
market of...well...everyone.</DIV><DIV><BR><DIV> <SPAN =
class=3D"Apple-style-span" style=3D"border-collapse: separate; =
border-spacing: 0px 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; =
font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: =
normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; text-align: auto; =
-khtml-text-decorations-in-effect: none; text-indent: 0px; =
-apple-text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; orphans: 2; =
white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; "><SPAN =
class=3D"Apple-style-span" style=3D"border-collapse: separate; =
border-spacing: 0px 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; =
font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: =
normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; text-align: auto; =
-khtml-text-decorations-in-effect: none; text-indent: 0px; =
-apple-text-size-adjust: auto; text-transform: none; orphans: 2; =
white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; "><DIV>Gian Anthony =
Constantine</DIV><DIV>Senior Network Design =
Engineer</DIV><DIV>Earthlink, Inc.</DIV><DIV>Office: =
404-748-6207</DIV><DIV>Cell: 404-808-4651</DIV><DIV>Internal Ext: =
x22007</DIV><DIV><A =
href=3D"mailto:constantinegi@corp.earthlink.net">constantinegi@corp.earthl=
ink.net</A></DIV><DIV><BR class=3D"khtml-block-placeholder"></DIV><BR =
class=3D"Apple-interchange-newline"></SPAN></SPAN> =
</DIV><BR><DIV><DIV>On Jan 8, 2007, at 5:15 PM, Bora Akyol =
wrote:</DIV><BR class=3D"Apple-interchange-newline"><BLOCKQUOTE =
type=3D"cite"><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; =
margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; min-height: 14px; "><BR></DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; min-height: 14px; "><BR></DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; =
min-height: 14px; "><BR></DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE type=3D"cite"><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; ">-----Original Message-----</DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; ">From: owner-nanog@merit.edu [<A =
href=3D"mailto:owner-nanog@merit.edu">mailto:owner-nanog@merit.edu</A>] =
On<SPAN class=3D"Apple-converted-space">=A0</SPAN></DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; ">Behalf Of Gian Constantine</DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; ">Sent: Sunday, January 07, 2007 7:18 PM</DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; ">To: <A =
href=3D"mailto:nanog@merit.edu">nanog@merit.edu</A></DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; ">Subject: Re: Network end users to pull down 2 =
gigabytes a<SPAN class=3D"Apple-converted-space">=A0</SPAN></DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; ">day, continuously?</DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; =
min-height: 14px; "><BR></DIV> </BLOCKQUOTE><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; =
"><snip></DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE type=3D"cite"><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">In =
entertainment, content is king. More specifically, new<SPAN =
class=3D"Apple-converted-space">=A0</SPAN></DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">release =
content is king. While internet distribution may help<SPAN =
class=3D"Apple-converted-space">=A0</SPAN></DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">breathe =
life into the long tail market, it is hard to imagine<SPAN =
class=3D"Apple-converted-space">=A0</SPAN></DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">any =
major shift from existing distribution methods. People<SPAN =
class=3D"Apple-converted-space">=A0</SPAN></DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">simply =
like the latest TV shows and the latest movies.</DIV> </BLOCKQUOTE><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; min-height: 14px; "><BR></DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">What's =
new to you is very different from what's new to me?</DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; min-height: 14px; "><BR></DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">I am =
very happy watching 1 year old episodes of Top Gear whereas</DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; ">if you are located in the UK, you may consider this =
as old news.</DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; =
margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; min-height: 14px; "><BR></DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; ">The story here is about the cost of storing the =
video content (which</DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: =
0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">is asymptotically zero) and =
the cost of distributing it (which is also</DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; =
">asymptotically</DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; =
margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">approaching zero, despite the =
ire of the SPs).</DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; =
margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; min-height: 14px; "><BR></DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; min-height: 14px; "><BR></DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE =
type=3D"cite"><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; =
margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">So, this leaves us with little =
more than what is already<SPAN =
class=3D"Apple-converted-space">=A0</SPAN></DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">offered =
by the MSOs: linear TV and VoD. This is where things<SPAN =
class=3D"Apple-converted-space">=A0</SPAN></DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">become =
complex.</DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; =
margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; min-height: 14px; "><BR></DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; ">The studios will never (not any time soon) allow for =
a<SPAN class=3D"Apple-converted-space">=A0</SPAN></DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; ">subscription based VoD on new content. They would =
instantly<SPAN class=3D"Apple-converted-space">=A0</SPAN></DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; ">be sued by Time Warner (HBO).<SPAN =
class=3D"Apple-converted-space">=A0</SPAN></DIV> </BLOCKQUOTE><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; min-height: 14px; "><BR></DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">This is =
a very US-centric view of the world. I am sure there are</DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; ">hundreds of</DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; =
margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">TV stations =
from India, Turkey, Greece, etc that would love to put their</DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; ">content</DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; =
margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">online and =
make money off the long tail.</DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; =
margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; min-height: =
14px; "><BR></DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE type=3D"cite"><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">I guess =
where I am going with all this is simply it is very<SPAN =
class=3D"Apple-converted-space">=A0</SPAN></DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">hard to =
make this work from a business and marketing side.<SPAN =
class=3D"Apple-converted-space">=A0</SPAN></DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">The =
network constraints are, likely, a minor issue for some<SPAN =
class=3D"Apple-converted-space">=A0</SPAN></DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">time to =
come. Interest is low in the public at large for<SPAN =
class=3D"Apple-converted-space">=A0</SPAN></DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">primary =
(or even major secondary) video service on the PC.</DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; min-height: 14px; "><BR></DIV> </BLOCKQUOTE><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; min-height: 14px; "><BR></DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">Again, =
your views are very US centric, and are mono-cultural.</DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; min-height: 14px; "><BR></DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">If you =
open your horizons, I think there is a world of content out =
there</DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; =
margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">that the content owners would be =
happy to license and sell at < 10 cents</DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">a =
pop.</DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; =
margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">To them it is dead content, but =
it turns out that they are worth</DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; =
margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">something to =
someone out there.</DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: =
0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; ">This is what iTunes, and =
Rhapsody are doing with music. And the day of</DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; ">the video is coming.</DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: =
0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; =
min-height: 14px; "><BR></DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; =
margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; =
">Bora</DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; =
margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; min-height: 14px; "><BR></DIV><DIV =
style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; =
margin-left: 0px; ">-- Off to raise some venture funds now. (Just =
kidding ;)</DIV><DIV style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; =
margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; min-height: 14px; "><BR></DIV> =
</BLOCKQUOTE></DIV><BR></DIV></BODY></HTML>=
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