[28693] in North American Network Operators' Group
CIDR Report
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (pjnesser@Nesser.COM)
Sat May 13 03:54:41 2000
Date: Sat, 13 May 2000 00:50:16 -0700 (PDT)
From: <pjnesser@Nesser.COM>
To: nanog@nanog.org
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I was just looking through the graphs on Tony's Web site and noticed
something somewhat disturbing. For the first 2000 days of Tony's plots
(starting from 1/1/1994) the number of routes has grown roughly by 10,000
every 500 days. so 20k --> 30k, 30k --> 40k, 40k --> 50k, & 50k --> 60k.
But if you look at the last 250 days or so you see that the table has
grown by more than 16k routes. So we are seeing growth at 300% of what we
saw for the last 5 plus years. It also looks annoyingly geometric or
perhaps exponential, instead of the nice linear growth since CIDR was
introduced.
Take a look at: http://www.employees.org/~tbates/cidr.hist.plot.html
Just eyeballing it since I am too tired to actually plot the number right
now it looks like we could hit 100k routes by the end of the year or early
next year.
To the $64,000^h^h^h^h^h^h $10,000,000 (you gotta change with the times
:-) questions are why? anyone care to guess when it starts to become a
problem and with what widely deployed boxes first? is there anything we
can do about it?
Have a good weekend.
---> Phil
