[191696] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: One Year On: IPv4 Exhaust
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Owen DeLong)
Sun Sep 25 18:30:26 2016
X-Original-To: nanog@nanog.org
From: Owen DeLong <owen@delong.com>
In-Reply-To: <57E7F8F5.6070402@prt.org>
Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2016 16:28:08 -0600
To: Paul Thornton <paul@prt.org>
Cc: nanog@nanog.org
Errors-To: nanog-bounces@nanog.org
> On Sep 25, 2016, at 10:19 AM, Paul Thornton <paul@prt.org> wrote:
>=20
> On 25/09/2016 01:54, Jay R. Ashworth wrote:
>> One year ago today, at 12:36pm EDT, Facebook On This Day reminds me, =
John
>> Curran announced that the last IPv4 address block in ARIN's Free Pool =
had
>> been assigned.
>>=20
>> How's that been workin' out for everyone?
>=20
> If you'll all indulge a bit of a RIPE-centric reply on this; I've was =
allocated a /22 from around half-way through 185.169.0.0/16 last week =
(185 being RIPE's final /8).
>=20
> Assuming that RIPE are allocating sequentially - and I believe they =
are - This means that they have consumed around 66.5% of their final /8. =
They started allocating from this in September 2012, which suggests a =
reasonably low consumption rate but the RIPE final /8 will be exhausted =
in around two years time.
>=20
> I can't find an equivalent ARIN page of "how much we've allocated from =
our last /8" - the statistics show that just over 2x /16s worth have =
been assigned/allocated between January 2016 and July 2016, so a lower =
rate by some margin than RIPE - but there are of course policy =
differences at play there.
The reason you can=E2=80=99t find such a thing is because ARIN doesn=E2=80=
=99t have a last /8 policy, per se, like RIPE and APNIC. Instead, ARIN =
set aside blocks well before the last /8 for critical infrastructure =
(Key high-level name servers, IXPs, etc.) and IPv6 transition. The IPv6 =
transition space has a pretty limited set of valid use cases as does the =
critical infrastructure block, so ARIN is probably allocating those =
relatively slowly, but they aren=E2=80=99t coming from the =E2=80=9Clast =
/8=E2=80=9D, to the best of my knowledge. The last /8 was allocated =
business as usual from the free pool and may well have provided the last =
allocation from the =E2=80=9Cvirgin free pool=E2=80=9D (as opposed to =
reclaimed blocks).
>=20
> Now the operational question of "How has this affected us" is probably =
best answered with "We've had to pay real money for IPv4 addresses since =
then." What may be much more interesting is what happens when the =
fairly ready supply of IPv4 addresses in the secondary transfer market =
starts to dry up. Just throwing additional money at the problem will =
probably not be an effective or viable solution then.
IMHO, sane organizations see this writing on the walls and are deploying =
IPv6 at an increasing rate. If people act at a responsible pace, they =
should be able to get IPv6 deployed before we run out of readily =
available secondary market supply. If not, then, well,
it=E2=80=99s not like they didn=E2=80=99t have 20+ years warning so I =
don=E2=80=99t exactly feel a great deal of sympathy for their =
self-inflicted wound(s).
>=20
> I'm sure that Geoff Huston has a much more accurate and colourful set =
of predictions than my back-of-envelope calculations for those =
interested!
Yep.
IPv6 is the present. IPv4 is the past. The sooner we get more networks =
to regard the world in this way, the quicker life gets better for =
everyone.
Owen
