[184055] in North American Network Operators' Group
RE: ARIN Region IPv4 Free Pool Reaches Zero
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Steve Mikulasik)
Thu Sep 24 18:03:23 2015
X-Original-To: nanog@nanog.org
From: Steve Mikulasik <Steve.Mikulasik@civeo.com>
To: "bob@FiberInternetCenter.com" <bob@FiberInternetCenter.com>, nanog list
<nanog@nanog.org>
Date: Thu, 24 Sep 2015 21:56:14 +0000
In-Reply-To: <74b03a610779118f4fe2938a6bbc5761.squirrel@66.201.44.180>
Errors-To: nanog-bounces+nanog.discuss=bloom-picayune.mit.edu@nanog.org
I read an article from National Geographic from the early 90s about the con=
version for CFCs to HCFC and I think IPv4 will transition similarly. I wish=
I could find the article on line, but I can't find it at all. It basically=
credited the speed of the transition (it was faster than most thought) due=
to CFC scarcity imposed by legislation.=20
CFC used in A/C were known to be terrible for the environment for a number =
of years, but consumers didn't really demand HCFC equipment and you could a=
lways buy CFCs cheaply to repair your appliances. Once it was mandated that=
HCFCs could only be used on anything new and CFCs could not be produced at=
the same level, a market was created for reclaiming CFCs from old equipmen=
t. The price of CFCs went up for a number of years due to decline supply un=
til there was enough of a uptick in HCFC equipment that eventually the pric=
e of CFCs tanked due to low demand. The limited CFC market helped pushed pe=
ople in adopting HCFCs since the cost of repairing your old CFC A/C unit wa=
s very high for a number of years. By the time prices went down no one real=
ly cared that much for CFCs anyways.
Since we now have a market controlling the allocation of IPv4 addresses we =
will probably see the fastest uptick in IPv6 adoption yet. The price will g=
o up until it is more reasonable to just go to IPv6 for everything than to =
figure out how to keep getting blood from the IPv4 stone. There is an upper=
limit to how much we can all pay for an IP address. Now would be a good ti=
me to invest in IPv4 addresses to sell at the high end of the market ;)
(Hope I did a decent job explaining, trying to remember the article from a =
few years ago is hard.)
-----Original Message-----
From: NANOG [mailto:nanog-bounces@nanog.org] On Behalf Of Bob Evans
Sent: Thursday, September 24, 2015 3:32 PM
To: nanog list <nanog@nanog.org>
Subject: Re: ARIN Region IPv4 Free Pool Reaches Zero
IPv4's works better today than ever before. IP space in North America has n=
ow officially turned into a revenue source for networks. Most private enter=
prise customers understand costs and profits. Business does not understand =
free stuff in a free market. Hence, IPv4 is no longer free in a block range=
perspective.
To any business with rising employee medical insurance, electricity and off=
ice rent rates, an IP address cost is just not on the radar. Just not a lar=
ge enough cost to make IPv6 look financially attractive. Only when IPv4 add=
ress costs begin to exceed that of the hardware and labor conversion costs,=
will IPv6 gain traction in North America.
So for the most part your teenage kids will grow up in an IPv4 world until =
they are probably 30,something. But, your grand kids will see IPv4 as soooo=
old. That's all contingent upon all the networks we work on start charging=
$10 or more per IP address per month.
Thank You
Bob Evans
CTO
> Remember, the Internet being fully migrated to IPv6 is just 5 yrs away=20
> just like fusion power plants is 20 yrs away (although I think now=20
> they are saying 50 yrs away which would make IPv6 12.5 yrs away). (=3D
>
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------
> -------------------------
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> ITG@ITechGeek.Com
> https://itg.nu/
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>
> On Thu, Sep 24, 2015 at 4:06 PM, Mike Hammett <nanog@ics-il.net> wrote:
>
>> =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D
>> The whole reason for the inertia
>> against going to IPv6 is "it ain't broke, so I not gonna 'fix' it."
>>
>> Now it's broke.
>> =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D
>>
>> ^^^^^^^This ^^^^^^^^^^^
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> -----
>> Mike Hammett
>> Intelligent Computing Solutions
>> http://www.ics-il.com
>>
>> ----- Original Message -----
>>
>> From: "Stephen Satchell" <list@satchell.net>
>> To: nanog@nanog.org
>> Sent: Thursday, September 24, 2015 2:38:26 PM
>> Subject: Re: ARIN Region IPv4 Free Pool Reaches Zero
>>
>> On 09/24/2015 09:49 AM, Dovid Bender wrote:
>> > The issue now is convincing clients that they need it. The other=20
>> > issue is many software vendors still don't support it.
>>
>> And this may trigger a refresh on routers, as people old or refurbed=20
>> equipment find they need to change. The whole reason for the inertia=20
>> against going to IPv6 is "it ain't broke, so I not gonna 'fix' it."
>>
>> Now it's broke.
>>
>>
>
