[182567] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: FIB Sizing
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (William Herrin)
Wed Jul 22 00:52:20 2015
X-Original-To: nanog@nanog.org
X-Really-To: <nanog@nanog.org>
In-Reply-To: <49EE1A35457387418410F97564A3752B013686BC6F@MSG6.westman.int>
From: William Herrin <bill@herrin.us>
Date: Wed, 22 Jul 2015 00:51:50 -0400
To: Graham Johnston <johnstong@westmancom.com>
Cc: "nanog@nanog.org" <nanog@nanog.org>
Errors-To: nanog-bounces@nanog.org
On Tue, Jul 21, 2015 at 4:57 PM, Graham Johnston
<johnstong@westmancom.com> wrote:
> Does anybody have a working projection, or crystal ball, that can provide=
a recommendation on FIB size requirements for the next 24 months? Are we =
expecting the IPv4 table to continue to grow at somewhere around 50k routes=
a year? I came up with this from eyeballing the graph at http://www.cidr-r=
eport.org/cgi-bin/plota?file=3D%2fvar%2fdata%2fbgp%2fas2.0%2fbgp-active.txt=
&descr=3DActive%20BGP%20entries%20%28FIB%29&ylabel=3DActive%20BGP%20entries=
%20%28FIB%29&with=3Dstep.
Hi Graham,
The IPv4 BGP table has been growing by 10% to 15% per year since CIDR.
It appears to be a compounding curve, not linear.
IPv4 exhaustion is a new factor which may or may not impact the next
24 months' projection. There are arguments favoring a slower rate (no
more free pool). There are arguments favoring a faster rate
(fragmentation from address sales). No one has a crystal ball good
enough to know for sure -- the situation is literally unprecedented.
Regards,
Bill Herrin
--=20
William Herrin ................ herrin@dirtside.com bill@herrin.us
Owner, Dirtside Systems ......... Web: <http://www.dirtside.com/>
