[182020] in North American Network Operators' Group
Re: Dual stack IPv6 for IPv4 depletion
daemon@ATHENA.MIT.EDU (Baldur Norddahl)
Thu Jul 9 13:13:48 2015
X-Original-To: nanog@nanog.org
In-Reply-To: <DB669F1D-C137-4E4D-8433-B23E3C004BCA@delong.com>
Date: Thu, 9 Jul 2015 19:13:43 +0200
From: Baldur Norddahl <baldur.norddahl@gmail.com>
To: nanog@nanog.org
Errors-To: nanog-bounces@nanog.org
Den 09/07/2015 18.08 skrev "Owen DeLong" <owen@delong.com>:
> > That will never happen. If you offer me $1000 per IPv4, then I will
happily
> > terminate some user contracts and sell their IP space to you=E2=80=A6
>
> Eventually, you run out of user contracts to terminate.
At $1000 per contract I do not care. I will retire and be happy.
Seriously ISPs are often valued by number of active contracts. A typical
value might be $100 to $200. The value of an IPv4 address can not go any
higher than this because at that point you can buy another company just to
get the addresses.
>
> > In fact it will never become even that expensive. With a marked price o=
f
> > $10 I am buying IP space for customers as needed and I will include fre=
e
> > space in the contracts. If the price went to $100 I would tell all user=
s
> > that they need to pay monthly rent for their IP or alternative, the use=
r
> > would have to accept carrier NAT in some form. And then I would proceed
to
> > buy a new house for the money I make by selling address space.
>
> Sure, but aren=E2=80=99t your customers going to start demanding IPv6 ins=
tead of
that at some point?
My customers have been demanding IPv6 for some time already.
>
> Aren=E2=80=99t they going to start insisting on a service that doesn=E2=
=80=99t charge per
address?
They will have their free IPv6 and will care less about a non shared IPv4.
This will cause the valuation of IPv4 to crash at some point because the
demand will disappear.
>
> > There is a ton of address space that is inefficient used. We will be
able
> > to buy excess from companies that "create" space by optimizing their
> > existing space. There is a reason we have not seen any rise in the pric=
e
> > even after multiple years with depletion in large parts of the world.
>
> Yes=E2=80=A6 It=E2=80=99s called =E2=80=9Csoft landing=E2=80=9D=E2=80=A6 =
ARIN will be the first region to deplete
without significant
> austerity policies for newcomers to get address space.
RIPE gives you 1k addresses. This is not enough even for two guys and a
router. But yes it is a nice token.
The big companies have now gone without new space for a while. Just a few
months ago I bought 2k addresses at $6 per address. I do not observe any
rising tendency in IPv4 pricing.
Regards
Baldur
